979
FXUS61 KPBZ 110713
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
213 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of
snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating
temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations
favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering upslope and lake-effect snow showers today taper off
  after sunset; light accumulations possible north of I-80 and
  in the ridges
- Below seasonal temperatures continue
---------------------------------------------------------------

Today will be characterized by post-frontal northwest flow with
lake-effect snow showers/banding possible through the day. The
best chance for additional accumulations will be along and north
of I-80 where these bands could locally add another couple
inches to the snowpack. Farther south, only some passing light
snow showers or flurries will be possible with little to no
additional accumulations. Lake-effect activity wanes tonight as
winds gradually diminish and back to more west-southwesterly.
Temperatures will be cold, with highs this afternoon remaining
below freezing for most and lows tonight dropping into the teens
north of I-80 and low 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday
- Temperatures continue well below average
----------------------------------------------------------------

A weak shortwave dives across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
first thing Friday morning, bringing increasing snow chances
south of I-70 with the best chance for light accumulations in
the ridges of northern WV. A second shortwave hot on its heels
moves over the lower Great Lakes overnight Friday into early
Saturday. This second wave brings light snow chances to more of
the area but with little to no additional accumulation.
Overall, guidance continues its downward trend in snowfall
potential across the area, with the latest NBM probabilities
suggesting the highest chances (only around 30%) for at least an
inch of snowfall remain south of I-68 and in the WV ridges.
Probabilities for at least 3 inches of snowfall are 20% or less
in these same areas.

Temperatures moderate slightly Friday with highs reaching the
low to mid 30s south of I-80 and upper 20s north. Lows Friday
night remain cold, in the teens north of I-80 and low 20s
farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Alberta Clipper returns snow chances to the region late
  Saturday into Sunday; highest accumulations appear to favor
  areas south of Pittsburgh at this time
- Very cold temperatures continue into early next week; Cold
  Weather Advisory along the ridges may be needed early Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range guidance continues to strongly favor a trough over
the Great Lakes, maintaining cold air across the region through
the weekend. A fast-moving Alberta Clipper is expected to track
in late Saturday into early Sunday, potentially causing travel
impacts from accumulating snow. Current projections place the
highest chances of impacts south of Pittsburgh. The most likely
range is 2-4 inches, though a few scenarios support higher
totals if localized bands develop. Winter Weather Advisories may
be needed.

Strong cold air advection in the wake of this system will filter
a continental polar airmass into the region, bringing us some of
our coldest temperatures of the season to this point. Highs
Sunday may not climb above 20 degrees for some, and breezy winds
will mean even daytime wind chills could hover in the single
digits. Lows Sunday night drop into the teens and single digits
under clearing skies. Wind chills may drop below zero in the
ridges, meaning a Cold Weather Advisory could be needed.
Similarly cold temperatures are expected to last through Monday
night before long range guidance suggests a possible flip in
the synoptic pattern brings a warming trend into the middle and
latter part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- On and off snow showers with fluctuating VFR/MVFR conditions
  favoring western PA through Thursday evening.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong cold advection and deeper mixing within the post-frontal
environment favors ceilings improvements that fluctuate between
1.5kft - 4kft and become predominantly VFR by 17z Thursday (amid
increasing subsidence). Tonight, narrow bands of lake effect snow
showers and convective snow showers (isolated) may provide brief
heavier snow that temporarily reduces visibility. FKL and DUJ are
the most likely to see impact from these heavier bands of snow
through 14z.

Diurnal mixing Thursday afternoon may elicit light snow
showers/flurries that last longer than TAF mention, but are unlikely
to offer accumulations. Otherwise, high pressure moving through the
OH river valley will slowly end snow showers by Thursday evening.


Outlook...
A fast-moving shortwave may develop a band of synoptically-
forced snow early Friday morning into the afternoon. Currently,
this looks to mainly impact central/southern West Virginia,
however, variances in its path remain large. Even without snow,
reinforcing cold air likely will maintain periods of MVFR to
lower VFR stratocu across the region.

The active weather pattern continues Saturday into Sunday with
additional upper shortwave trough movement; expect additional
periods of restrictions with any falling precipitation being
snow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ511-513.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ512-514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...Lupo