883
FXUS61 KPBZ 131119
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
719 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No notable changes to message, which still highlights low
probability severe risk this afternoon and summer-like
conditions next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low probability severe risk this afternoon, with damaging
wind the primary threat

2) Summer-like conditions develop late weekend into next week
with well above normal temperature and chances for afternoon
thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Jet-aided ascent ahead of a surface cold front and upper trough
axis will push areas of rain across the region this morning.
Weak dry-slotting lends to a brief break in rain near the noon
hour prior to the approach/passage of the front/trough axis.

There remains a marginal risk for severe weather with the likely
line of showers and thunderstorms that develop along the frontal
boundary as it moves through western PA and northern WV (i.e.
chances focused mainly east of I-77 in Ohio). This risk is
conditional on enough clearing of area cloud cover from the
morning rain prior to the frontal arrival; in such case, surface
temperature rising towards 70 degrees with lower 50 dewpoints
generally fosters 500-1000 J/kg CAPE, enough for storm up-growth
(plus 30kts shear to aide storm organization) to create
isolated/scattered instances of damaging wind for any bowing
line segments. Tornado and hail threats are likely to be very
low due to higher LCLs and limits dGZ CAPE, respectively, with
any tornado only occuring with a right-moving storm cell.
Timing for frontal passage is 1pm-8pm with the the severe threat
likely peaking between 2pm-6pm and favoring locations southeast
of Pittsburgh (best chance for surface heating before frontal
arrival).


KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold advection behind today`s front leaves Thursday with
below normal temperatures (with limited risk of frost
potential), which likely is the last such day of seeing well-
below normal readings for a bit.

A pattern shift starting Friday and evolving into early next
week favors eastern CONUS ridging that drives temperature
readings across the upper Ohio River Valley above normal by
Saturday. By Monday, high temperature readings could be on the
order of 20 degrees above normal (for reference, normal at
Pittsburgh is 72 degrees), evidenced by the current 93 degree
forecast. All of this comes with a fairly common summer-time
type caveat: area temperature forecasts starting even Sunday and
continuing into the middle next week are made absent of any
diurnally driven convective potential (and associated cloud
cover) that tends to lower the actual observed readings for a
given day. More simply, smaller scale details that remain
variable at this time are likely to dictate whether observed
temperature is more summer-like warm (but lower impacts) vs.
approaching Heat Advisory criteria in urban heat centers.

The other note with this pattern shift is the potential for
severe weather that typically comes with summer-like temperature
and shortwave movement. However, large variances among ensembles
on details to assess these threats makes it more of a wait-and-
see talking point than any tangible discussion for a specific
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Morning showers beneath mid and upper level jet-driven ascent
will exit after sunrise from west to east as satellite imagery
shows a sharp cutoff to the cloud shield in their wake. What`s
likely to happen at that point is that we begin to mix and drive
a diurnal cu deck. With remnant surface moisture from overnight
rainfall, that deck likely thickens up rather quickly and by
late morning we see BKN to OVC high-end MVFR cigs around into
early afternoon. Come early afternoon with continued mixing,
probabilities favor cigs lifting with a return of VFR ahead of
an approaching cold front that will bring redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms.

With confidence increasing in a scattered out warm sector ahead
of the cold front, expect that we`ll have enough heating to
generate some strong to severe thunderstorms possibly
organizing into a line as they move across the area. Development
is favored after 17z mostly east of ZZV and progressing
southeastward into the evening. Have included TEMPO groups and
associated periodic restrictions in thunderstorms in the most
likely timeframe at this point. Strong wind gusts are the
primary threat.

Thunderstorms depart to the east as a cold front sweeps through
the area this evening bringing a wind shift from southwest to
northwest. More widespread restrictions settle in behind the
front overnight most likely in the form of MVFR/IFR cigs
(highest IFR probability for FKL/DUJ) as wind remains elevated.
With weak lift beneath a cold core upper low overhead and a
conditionally unstable, saturated near-surface profile, MVFR
cigs, drizzle, and light showers are likely to persist into at
least the morning hours on Thursday.

Outlook...
Restrictions continue into Thursday morning before gradual
improvement by the evening hours when VFR returns through Friday
beneath surface high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak/MLB