038
FXUS61 KPBZ 091143
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
743 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming
weekend with high pressure in control. Precipitation chances
return later Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly sunny today
- Temperatures around 5 degrees below normal
---------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure will trek across southern Ontario today,
resulting in another mostly sunny day. Early morning river
steam fog will dissipate by mid morning, and only scattered
fair-weather cumulus are anticipated later. Winds will be
lighter due the closer proximity to the high center as compared
to yesterday, but still pick up somewhat during the late
morning and afternoon with mixing.

Daytime high temperatures are expected to be several degrees
below normal, ending up in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Frost or freezing conditions possible overnight

- Friday`s high temperature back to normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

Overnight, there will be a light downslope (warming) easterly
wind, however, low temperatures are forecast to be cooler than
observed this morning.

Latest ensemble guidance shows a 40-70% chance of 32F or lower
north of PGH, and 20-40% south and east of PGH early Friday
morning. Best matching analogs show about a 50% probability in
general, increasing to 70-80% north of I-80. Looking closer and
just using analogs closer to this time of October, observed
values of 28F to 32F were limited to north of Pittsburgh. For
temperatures during this timeframe, opted to use a 50/50 blend
of NBM mean and NBM 10th percentile guidance as that has
typically performed well during stronger radiational cooling
setups.

In coordination with surrounding offices, no changes were made
to the existing Freeze Watch, but expect this to be updated to
Frost Advisories or Freeze Warnings later today. Additionally,
it is possible areas to the south of the existing watch may need
Frost Advisories as well.

During the day on Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant
feature and maintain mostly clear skies. Wind is expected to
shift out of the southeast and highs are forecast to reach into
the mid to upper 60s, around average for this time of October.
Light southeasterly wind will persist overnight inhibiting
efficient radiative cooling, resulting in warmer overnight lows
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
- Temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
- Drier pattern returns next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Saturday, an upper trough dropping down over the Great Lakes
will bring a chance (40%-60%) for measurable precipitation
Saturday night through Sunday. High temperatures are expected
to remain in the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend.

Models have been showing good continuity with this trough
phasing with a coastal low of the Carolina coast on Sunday.
There is a higher relative level of uncertainty in these
scenarios, however, as we head into next week, guidance shows
relatively good agreement in ridging building back in over the
eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Steam fog over area rivers, briefly impacting MGW mainly, will
largely dissipate by mid-morning. High pressure, centered
across southern Ontario, will maintain generally clear skies and
a northeast wind around 5 knots through the TAF period. The
cumulus rule and model soundings indicate a few scattered
clouds are possible at FKL, DUJ and LBE this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Restriction and shower potential returns Saturday night through
early Monday as an upper level low tracks SE across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88/CL
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...CL/WM