Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
867 FXUS61 KPBZ 140618 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 218 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The NBM has been coming in with dew points a bit too high and had to lower them a couple degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperature peaking Tuesday into Wednesday could pose heat risks, especially to sensitive populations. 2) Pending finer details, thunderstorm chances return Friday into the weekend with potential for severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge over the western CONUS will continue to shift east today with the axis arriving during the day today over the east. The presence will for the most part, shut off the moisture flux into the region. As such, have lowered the dew points as the pattern would suggest less moisture in place. This will shut off the potential for convection into the afternoon as the convective allowing models cease to even provide evidence of a pop up shower. That said, the probs of reaching 100 degree heat index values for the day today has dropped to near 0% but remains around 60% for the areas to the south of I-80. Wednesday will most likely be the day that a Heat Advisory is needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... By Friday the ridge is expected to weaken and retreat back to the west. This will allow a trough to set up over the northeast with northwest flow set up across the Great Lakes for Friday and into the weekend. This will allow a few shortwave troughs to pass through the area from the northwest. While timing and intensity is in question at this point as the 15% prob for severe on Friday or Saturday was dropped, there is still adequate instability and usually a pattern change results in unsettled weather. Will keep the potential of severe in the HWO. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure in place will make for dry conditions and light winds. While a VFR forecast is expected, it is possible a few areas of fog may develop this morning and this could impact a terminal or two. The residence time for fog, given the dry conditions, will not be long. Expect a few instances of cu through the day at about 6 KFT. Outlook... High pressure favors VFR through at least Thursday, with only low probabilities for river valley fog near dawn. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger