792
FXUS61 KPBZ 031048
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. Rain
chances return by the middle of next week, but severe weather
is not expected over the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Patchy river valley fog this morning
- Pleasant conditions continue today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Early Morning Update: Valley fog is noted on GOES-19 Nighttime
Microphysics channel along the Allegheny and Cheat River. Fog
will likely dissipate within an hour after sunrise with surface
mixing.

Previous Discussion:

Quiet and dry conditions will continue today under high
pressure. There is a potential of some river valley fog in the
Cheat basin early this morning. Otherwise, daytime high
temperatures will be near or slightly below average; lingering
in the low-80s. Winds will remain light from the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather expected through Monday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

High confidence that Monday will remain dry. Temperatures will
be slightly warmer than Sunday, but comfortable dew points are
anticipated to continue as low-level flow from the southeast
will cause dry air to sink over the western ridges and
overspread into western Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions through Tuesday.
- Low probability afternoon storms may be possible late week
- Pattern shift expected Friday into Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Cloud coverage is expected to increase early Tuesday morning
from the south, most likely associated with outflow from
potential precipitation development along a trough. Otherwise,
mostly dry conditions will continue into Tuesday.

Northward advancement of the trough will be our best chance for
any precipitation mid-week. Isolated shower coverage may develop
along the ridges of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania Wednesday
into Thursday. However, confidence is still low on observing
measurable precipitation due to potential subsidence
interference.

A number of models are favoring warm and muggy conditions
returning late week. The NBM 25th percentile depicts
temperatures in the upper-80s/near 90 degrees and dew points
above 65 degrees on Saturday. Machine learning notes a slight
increase in probabilities for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. However, the potential of strong to severe storms is
considered very low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy river valley fog (impacting FKL) will dissipate by 13z as
diurnal heating/mixing commences.

High confidence VFR forecast under the influence of high
pressure with generally light east northeast winds. A few
afternoon cu may develop around 5kft between 15z-21z, otherwise
skies are likely clear with some sky obscuration occurring due
to lofted wildfire smoke.

Strong radiational cooling may foster patchy river valley steam
fog that favors FKL for morning impact, likely after 08z.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR through mid-
week save any patchy morning fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier