440
FXUS61 KPBZ 031722
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
122 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures today will slowly rise through mid week
while high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. Low
probability shower and thunderstorm chances favoring the
afternoons return to the forecast during the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Seasonable weather today only marred by hazy skies from
  wildfire smoke
- Localized river valley fog possible after midnight
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry
weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley today. Area
temperature will be a few ticks above yesterday`s readings and
more approximate the seasonal average. The most notable item
will be a hazier sky due to the presence of high altitude
wildfire smoke; partner agencies suggest minimal near surface
impacts are expected. You can visit airnow.gov for more
information.

Another clear sky night will favor strong radiational cooling
that lends to localized river valley fog. Further drying the
near-surface air may limit degree of development, but strong
land/water temperature differences are likely to suffice for
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather continues.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Temperatures will be slightly warmer than observed today as
ridging continues to build across the region, however, with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s, conditions will remain
relatively comfortable to start off the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers/storms return during the second half
  of the week
- Pattern shift later in the weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers
returning midweek as upper trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
Moisture is relatively limited and largely in the mid levels, do
do not expect much in overall QPF. The overall probability for a
half inch or greater over any 48hr period during the second half
of the week is 300% or less (highest to lowest = SE to NW)

A number of models are favoring warm and muggy conditions
returning late week. The NBM 25th percentile depicts
temperatures in the upper-80s/near 90 degrees and dew points
above 65 degrees on Saturday. Machine learning notes a slight
increase in probabilities for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. However, the potential of strong to severe storms is
considered very low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence VFR forecast under the influence of high
pressure with generally light east northeast winds. A few
afternoon cu may develop around 5kft between 15z-21z, otherwise
skies are likely clear with some sky obscuration occurring due
to lofted wildfire smoke.

Strong radiational cooling may foster patchy river valley steam
fog that favors FKL for morning impact, likely after 08z.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR through mid-
week save any patchy morning fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Hefferan/88
AVIATION...Frazier