114
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1245 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will end overnight, with rain chances returning Friday and
into Saturday. Milder temperatures can be expected with a
gradual warming trend the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain east of the ridges by sunrise.
- Stagnant overnight temperatures moderate to near normal this
  afternoon
----------------------------------------------------------------

Latest WV imagery shows the crossing shortwave trough axis just
moving into eastern Ohio. Stratiform rain associated with this
feature will continue into early Wednesday morning with the
highest additional QPF south of PGH (trending higher to the
south), where 850-700 mb warm advection is strongest, and
consequently, the strongest lift as well. Latest analysis shows
the range of observed precipitation from 0.01" to 0.1: along and
north of I-80, gradually increasing to the south where sites in
WV have seen around 0.75" so far. Additional amounts overnight
will range from less than a tenth to 0.15" to 0.25" by the time
the shortwave exits east and rainfall ceases before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quieter weather
- Temperatures to moderate back towards normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure builds at the surface over the Great Lakes as 500
mb heights build about 80 meters. Significant sinking and drying
should break up the lingering stratus by late morning to midday
and result in high temperatures close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into this weekend
- Rain chances Thursday through Saturday with another passing
disturbance
- Dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday night, an upper-level trough will drop across the northern
Great Lakes bringing rain into the region by Friday. Ensembles
continue to maintain differences in the depth and speed of the
trough. A deeper and/or slower trough would lean towards higher
rainfall totals across the region while the weaker and/or faster
trough would result in lower rainfall accumulations. Either way, the
90th percentile rain accumulation looks to remain around or below 1
inch for the region. Highest accumulations will be across southern
Ohio and central/southern West Virginia.

A warm frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will cause high
temperatures on Friday to be 5-10 degrees above average. On
Friday/Friday night, the cold front crosses the region triggering a
northwest flow regime that could keep POPs elevated, especially
along the ridges, through Saturday due to orographic lift. Despite
cold FROPA, temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

The flow will become more westerly with a less amplified pattern by
Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This will begin a drier trend
as subtle height rises are favored for a brief period of time. By
Monday, ensembles hint at upper-level troughing advancing towards
the region. This will bring the next best chance for rain Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last breath of rain has just cleared ZZV and is moving its
way quickly east. Rainfall is expected to be out of the region
by 09z. DUJ can see a little mix of rain and snow here over the
coming hours as temperatures have fallen, but recent rainfall
and warm ground temperatures support little, if any
accumulation. Behind the organized precipitation, BR is expected
to pick up across most, if not all, ports amid low CIGs and
ample moisture near the SFC.

The higher chance of restrictions remains in CIGs staying near
the floor, with FKL being the only port not sporting a >90%
chance of IFR CIGs between 06-12z (FKL is around 70%). Surface
moisture and a stable environment will likely keep restrictions
ongoing through daybreak with only meager rising and scattering
into the day tomorrow. The exception to this could be near I-80,
where models are rather enthusiastic in showing scattering out
perhaps as early as sunrise. For the remainder of the ports, the
most likely scenario remains slowly mixing into a broken MVFR
deck with probabilities of reaching VFR between 20-30% for most
ports south of I-80.

Winds remain largely light through the TAF period with a slight
Nerly or NEerly component through the day time.

Outlook... High pressure continues Thursday but surface
moisture will maintain a 50/50 shot at VFR/MVFR cigs through the
period. Chances of restrictions and rain increase with a
passing disturbance Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...AK