305
FXUS61 KPBZ 050432
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1232 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, quiet weather will continue under high pressure. A passing
cold front Sunday evening may bring strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue.
- Fog may develop for portions of the region during overnight
  time period.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Overnight period in good shape. Just made minor adjustments to
cloud cover.

Previous discussion...

With light to variable winds and radiational cooling late
tonight, fog may form in isolated regions. Spatially, Hi-Res
guidance is noting visibility restrictions in eastern Ohio with
a uptick and low-level moisture over northern Ohio drifting
south after dark. Timing of fog is expected mainly after 3am
Saturday and could linger through 9am.

Saturday with be clear and dry under high pressure. Above
average temperatures will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and storm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening
  along a cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Warm, moist advection ahead of a cold front early Sunday morning
will create a temperature gradient west to east across the
region. Cooler temperatures (mid-40s) east of Pittsburgh are
likely while areas in eastern Ohio will experience low-50s.

A cold front may create severe weather impacts late Sunday
afternoon/evening. Joint probabilities of effective shear of
30kts and 500J/kg range from 20% to 35% over northern
Ohio/portions of western PA between 18Z to 00Z, ahead of the
cold front. After coordination with Storm Prediction Center, a
Marginal Risk for severe storms will be added to our area.

The probability of strong to severe storms decreases rapidly
after 10pm with the passage of the cold front and the loss of
surface heating.

In the wake of the front, overnight temperatures Sunday night
will fall to near average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and cooler temperatures are expected under
  northwest flow.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

After the passage of the front Sunday night, a cooler air mass
will return to the area with temperatures dropping to near
normal values, if not a tad below normal.

A few cooler solutions within the ensembles may prompt
frost/freeze products. Even the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
has a 20% chance of below average temperatures between October
11th and 13th.

Increasing subsidence over the course of the week as a large
ridge transitions towards the region will maintain dry
conditions in the extended. Unfortunately, this means that
drought conditions are likely to continue through the middle of
October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with a light north northeast wind is expected through the
TAF period under the influence of high pressure.

The biggest uncertainty stems from the potential development and
spread of a lower stratus layer in cool NE flow off Lake Erie,
which is already developing around KCLE. Hi-res modeling
suggests around 50% probability of cigs less than 2kft from KZZV
to KFKL, but limited mention to FKL due to closer proximity to
maintain a broken versus few/scattered deck. These issues will
abate shortly after 12z.

.Outlook...
With a high in place tomorrow, VFR conditions are expected to
persist through mid-day Sunday. Then a cold front is expected to
move into the area bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon/evening.

High pressure is expected to settle into the area early next week and
usher in a return of largely VFR conditions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/22
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier