950
FXUS61 KPBZ 090925
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
525 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming
weekend with high pressure in control. Precipitation chances
return later Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low temperatures in the 30s, with at least patchy frost likely
  north and east of Pittsburgh this morning

- Around 5 degrees below normal today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over
northern Michigan. Surface winds have been light out of the
north / northeast overnight, and latest surface observations
show small to no dewpoint depressions already, so those
locations where wind is predominantly calm, frost/dew formation
is likely early this morning. The area where minimum
temperatures fall to the mid 30s will be where frost forms
(largely north and/or east of Pittsburgh). No changes were
made/needed to the ongoing Frost Advisory for these locations.

The mentioned high will slowly transition east over the course
of the day, centered over northern New York by this evening.
The associated strong, large scale subsidence will maintain dry
conditions and result in limited cloud coverage (less than the
scattered to broken shallow cumulus observed Wednesday)

Winds will be lighter due the closer proximity to the high
center and corresponding weaker surface pressure gradient, but
still pick up somewhat during the late morning and afternoon
with mixing.

Daytime high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s /
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Frost or freezing conditions possible overnight

- Friday`s high temperature back to normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

Overnight, there will be a light downslope (warming) easterly
wind, however, low temperatures are forecast to be cooler than
observed this morning.

Latest ensemble guidance shows a 40-70% chance of 32F or lower
north of PGH, and 20-40% south and east of PGH early Friday
morning. Best matching analogs show about a 50% probability in
general, increasing to 70-80% north of I-80. Looking closer and
just using analogs closer to this time of October, observed
values of 28F to 32F were limited to north of Pittsburgh. For
temperatures during this timeframe, opted to use a 50/50 blend
of NBM mean and NBM 10th percentile guidance as that has
typically performed well during stronger radiational cooling
setups.

In coordination with surrounding offices, no changes were made
to the existing Freeze Watch, but expect this to be updated to
Frost Advisories or Freeze Warnings later today. Additionally,
it is possible areas to the south of the existing watch may need
Frost Advisories as well.

During the day on Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant
feature and maintain mostly clear skies. Wind is expected to
shift out of the southeast and highs are forecast to reach into
the mid to upper 60s, around average for this time of October.
Light southeasterly wind will persist overnight inhibiting
efficient radiative cooling, resulting in warmer overnight lows
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
- Temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
- Drier pattern returns next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Saturday, an upper trough dropping down over the Great Lakes
will bring a chance (40%-60%) for measurable precipitation
Saturday night through Sunday. High temperatures are expected
to remain in the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend.

Models have been showing good continuity with this trough
phasing with a coastal low of the Carolina coast on Sunday.
There is a higher relative level of uncertainty in these
scenarios, however, as we head into next week, guidance shows
relatively good agreement in ridging building back in over the
eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure, centered across southern Ontario, will maintain
generally clear skies and a NE wind around 5kt through the TAF
period. CU rule and model soundings indicate a few cumulus
clouds are possible at FKL, DUJ and LBE this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Restriction and shower potential returns Saturday night through
early Monday as an upper level low tracks SE across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM