989
FXUS61 KPBZ 020513
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
113 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and dry weather will persist through the weekend. There
is a chance of rain returning in the middle of next week, but
severe weather is not expected over the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and dry conditions prevail today

---------------------------------------------------------------

Dry and quiet weather is expected today due to high pressure.
While upper-level winds are from the northwest, they will be
weak, limiting the entry of Canadian wildfire smoke into eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

Temperatures will trend 5 degrees below average today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry conditions continue into Sunday
- Rocky Mountain wildfire smoke may linger
----------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high that dry and quiet weather will likely
continue into Sunday under high pressure. Hazy conditions from
Rocky Mountain wildfires, which have affected the Great Plains,
may reach the region late Sunday morning with the progression of
a weak trough. Otherwise, Sunday`s temperature are expected to
be near average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions through Monday.
- Slight chance of showers and storms mid-week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is high confidence in dry conditions persisting through at
least Monday as high pressure dominates the local forecast. A
slight warming trend will begin, however, with temperatures
climbing back above normal to the mid/upper 80s Sunday and
Monday afternoons.

Ensembles continue to suggest a trough moving from the Midwest
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. While lingering dry
air may initially serve to hinder the development of showers and
storms, some low-end precipitation potential returns during that
timeframe with PoPs increasing from 10-30% Tuesday afternoon to
20-40% Wednesday afternoon. Each day, the highest probabilities
for precipitation will be focused south of I-70, with lower
probabilities farther north.

Beyond Wednesday, models remain uncertain whether a trough will
deepen over the Great Lakes or if ridging will persist over the
Ohio Valley. The former solution would lead to a wetter local
forecast to end the week while the latter would keep us drier.
Given this uncertainty, opted not to deviate from the NBM`s low
chance PoPs (20-40%) each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains in place overnight tonight maintaining VFR
conditions. Most sites will see SKC with the exceptions being
MGW and LBE where a 5-6kft cloud deck has been stubborn to
erode even with daytime mixing. Gradient wind will hold around
5 knots out of the north/northeast overnight.

River valley fog appears favorable Saturday morning due to clear
skies aiding strong radiational cooling. However, enough
boundary layer mixing should limit/prevent terminal impacts and
thus was precluded from sites like FKL/DU/AGC.

A dry boundary layer will preclude much diurnal cu development
on Saturday, but some high level clouds will stream overhead
through the daytime hours. Wind will veer a bit more
northeasterly around 5-7 knots.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
morning river valley steam fog) with dry weather through the weekend
and into early portions of next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Cermak
AVIATION...Frazier/MLB