951
FXUS61 KPBZ 021629
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1229 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively cooler and drier conditions can be expected over the
weekend. Rain chances return by the middle of next week, but
severe weather is not expected over the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and dry conditions today

---------------------------------------------------------------

Building high pressure will maintain dry, benign weather
conditions today. While upper- level winds are from the
northwest, they will be weak, limiting the entry of Canadian
wildfire smoke into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

Temperatures will top out several degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather expected through Monday
- Low probability for surface impacts of wildfire smoke
----------------------------------------------------------------

Weak upper level flow and high pressure centered northeast of
the region will continue to support dry weather across the Upper
Ohio River Valley. Shift of the high slightly east combined with
subtle height rises means temperature will see a gradual rise,
remaining near normal Sunday and trending toward about 5 degrees
above normal.

The most noteworthy items will be tethered to the wildfire
world. The first is the potential for efficient mixing of dry
air to the surface Sun/Mon that creates low RH conditions for
the region that may elevate the potential for fire weather
concerns (though fairly muted given generally saturated ground
and light wind). The second is an influx of elevated wildfire
smoke from western CONUS and canadian wildfires; latest modeling
suggests smoke concentrations should remain elevated and be
denser to the north/south but this could change. You can visit
airnow.gov for the latest air quality information and smoke
forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions through Tuesday.
- Low probability afternoon storms may be possible late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble models favor a weak, saggy trough inching eastward
through the end of the week as strong ridging develops over the
desert SW. This should favor slightly above normal temperature
and a weak influx of moisture that may return low
probability/isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
starting Wednesday. This pattern is not likely to be favorable
for severe weather (weak shear with mean CAPE values less than
1000 J/kg) or flash flooding (mean PWAT values hovering between
the mean and the 75th percentile).

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions today with relatively
light winds due to a weak pressure gradient.

VFR is expected through the TAF period although high level
clouds will stream overhead through the daytime hours.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
morning river valley steam fog) with dry weather through the weekend
and into early portions of next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...88