401
FXUS61 KPBZ 042323
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains dominant through Monday, leading to
continued dry weather and warm temperatures. The next chance of
a wetting rainfall arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues under high pressure.
- Lows remain just above normal, patchy valley fog possible.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Expansive upper ridging over the eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast will maintain
mostly clear skies through tonight, save for occasional patches
of thin cirrus. Some patchy valley fog is once again expected
around sunrise Sunday given nearly calm wind, a clear sky, and
an overall dry airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm Sunday and Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday will be another beautiful day and very similar to Saturday.
Upper ridging slowly pivots eastward and high pressure remains
anchored off the New England coast with light southerly flow
promoting another warm day with low 80s highs. Dew points remain
comfortable with dry boundary layer mixing.

On Monday, a weak shortwave will move through in southwest flow on
the back periphery of the eastward moving ridge. This should result
in an increase in cloud cover by the latter half of the day,
but plenty of dry air precludes any precipitation mention.
Continued light southerly flow will modify the airmass a touch
more with afternoon highs a tick higher than Sunday. Cloud
coverage will continue to increase overnight Monday night ahead
of an approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing cold front returns areawide rain Tuesday
- Dry weather returns Wednesday with some gusty wind
- Temperatures fall to seasonal normals
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Low pressure passing way off to our north will drag a cold front
through the area on Tuesday and return high rain chances areawide.
Flow will increase out of the south just a bit ahead of the boundary
and return 60s dew points. PWATs will bump up to near 1.5" which is
around the 90th percentile of climatology, so plenty of moisture
will be available to work with. The best shortwave energy and
dynamics will remain displaced to our north, even in ensemble
members that favor a deeper trough. Timing of this feature shows
little disagreement, so feel pretty confident that rain will arrive
on Tuesday morning with the highest coverage in the afternoon and
evening hours coincident with strongest forcing from the boundary.
Instability looks like it`ll be hard to come by with a very
saturated profile and even the 25th percentile cloud coverage from
NBM >50% Tuesday morning and increasing through the day. Still,
while not a drought buster, this should be a welcomed wetting rain
for most. Probability for >0.25" is around 80-90%, >0.5" at 60-80%,
and >1" at 20-40%, so the most likely range as of now 0.25"-0.75"
with some locally higher amounts possible.

The trough quickly kicks out of here early Wednesday as the front
does the same. A slower, less likely solution suggests some showers
could linger into the late morning hours, but the general consensus
among most of the ensembles is for a quicker departure. High
pressure builds in immediately on its heels as dry air arrives in
north-northwest flow. It`ll likely be a bit gusty in the wake of the
front with a tightening gradient ahead of the building high, and NBM
max gust probabilities show a 40-60% chance of >25 mph gusts for
most of eastern OH/western PA.

The other notable difference will be temperatures starting to feel
more like fall. Normal high temperatures are in the mid 60s and
that`s right around where we look to be to close out the latter half
of the week with dry weather returning. Another disturbance may
return rain chances headed into next weekend but details remain
fuzzy at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence VFR continues through the TAF period under high
pressure. Mostly clear skies and light (generally southerly)
winds are expected overnight and into the day tomorrow. Model
probabilities are very low on any valley fog but ambient
conditions suggest formation is still possible, even if impacts
are more doubtful.

.OUTLOOK....
VFR conditions are expected on the whole through Monday as high
pressure remains in control. Patchy valley fog is once again
possible Monday morning, but with minimal terminal impact.
Restrictions are forecast to return Tuesday into Wednesday as an
approaching front brings rain chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...AK