361
FXUS61 KPBZ 042242
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
642 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch have both been
canceled. The remainder of the Friday daytime hours should be
dry. Uncertainty on timing/location of additional overnight
convection remains, but is still expected to remain largely
southwest of Pittsburgh.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and storms continue through Friday night.
A cold front brings dry weather back to the area Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The severe and flash flooding threat has diminished greatly with
the arrival of cooler air and eroded instability. The instability
gradient has shifted south along with the warmer air and left
us with some remnant cloud cover for the remainder of the
daytime hours on Friday.

There is the potential for another round of storms to fire to
our northwest and ride into our region overnight. Run to run CAMs
still largely advertise this activity to some degree but remain
inconsistent on timing and coverage, so uncertainty does
remain. The deeper moisture/higher PWAT air starts to get
suppressed to the south and west with time tonight as the east
coast trough starts to dig and upper low slowly gains a more
northerly component, but values remain elevated in eastern Ohio
through the night. A severe threat may accompany any storms as
well, especially if storms can combine cold pools and present a
continued wind threat. But, a stabilizing nocturnal boundary
layer should preclude most severe weather and leave primarily a
heavy rain threat.

By the time storms depart to our south Saturday morning, the
cold front itself (really a dew point gradient) should begin
making its way into the area from the north. Some additional
showers and storms could fire along the front during the
afternoon, mainly along/south of I-70. instability progs and
machine-learning guidance suggest that any severe threat would
be largely confined to areas south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
Behind the front, drier air and more seasonable temperatures
return through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with scattered near 3kft cu and convective cirrus starts the
current TAF period and generally remains that way through
approximately 06z.

Near/after 06z, decreasing cirrus plus approach of a surface
front/wind shift should aid moisture convergence that results in
spreading of MVFR/IFR cigs SE through 13z. Pockets of fog can`t
be ruled out but quick enough stratus development should limit
fog potential at terminals. ZZV may not see this stratus layer,
but it may be impacted by a southward moving MCS between 08z-12z
(highly likely it doesn`t travel farther east toward KHLG) that
creates brief but gusty wind, heavy rain and lightning.

SE advancement of the front plus diurnal heating will erode
stratus (but maintain 3-5kft cu) Saturday with low probability
for showers/thunderstorms south of the boundary after 15z.

Outlook...
High pressure under cooler northwest to northerly flow aloft
strongly favors VFR Saturday night through the early portion of
next week. Any additional restrictions would be tied to brief,
pre-dawn river valley fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLB/CL
AVIATION...Frazier