438
FXUS61 KPBZ 050724
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
224 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic light snow chances and below-normal temperatures
continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing light snow showers or flurries south of I-70 this
  morning; dry elsewhere
- Below-seasonal temperatures continue
---------------------------------------------------------------

A subtle mid-level shortwave passes south of the area today
with a weak surface low forming over the Deep South and tracking
eastward across the Southeast U.S. Impacts from this system are
expected to remain south of our area given its track, with the
most likely scenario including light snow or flurries south of
I-70 and little to no accumulation outside of a half inch to an
inch in the WV ridges. There is a small cluster of ensemble
members that depicts a scenario in which the surface low curves
northeast as it deepens off the coast of the Carolinas, which
could bring light snow or flurries as far north as Pittsburgh
and result in slightly higher snowfall amounts (a few inches) in
the WV ridges. However, this scenario still appears to be the
less likely one to play out, so the forecast still reflects the
former with lighter snowfall in the ridges and little more than
flurries across northern WV and extreme SW PA.

Any snow will depart by sunset as the low tracks out over the
western Atlantic, leaving dry and cold weather in place tonight.
Increasing cloud cover and south-southwest flow will prevent
low temps from tanking again, instead keeping them in the 20s
for most (upper teens in parts of NW PA and eastern OH).


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue
- Additional waves of light wintry precip over the weekend
- Only minor accumulations expected, primarily north of I-80 and
  in the ridges
----------------------------------------------------------------

A series of weak mid-level shortwaves traverse the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley over the weekend. The first brings low chances
for light snow showers to areas generally near and north of
Pittsburgh on Saturday, with little or no accumulations
expected. The second wave is slightly stronger than the first
and brings higher chances for a wintry mix to the entire area
on Sunday. Precipitation is expected to start at snow (possibly
a rain/snow mix in the Mon Valley) Sunday morning before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix across the lowlands south of
I-80 by late morning and afternoon. Overall accumulations with
the Sunday system are still anticipated to be light, with
measurable snowfall appearing most likely north of I-80 and in
the ridges. The latest NBM probabilities in those areas suggest
a 40-60% chance of exceeding an inch, 20-40% chance for 2
inches, and a 20% chance or less for 3 inches. Meanwhile, near
and south/west of Pittsburgh, probabilities for an inch are
generally 20% or less and even probabilities for a half inch are
30% or less.

A cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air and
northwest flow late in the day Sunday into Sunday night,
bringing an end to precipitation everywhere except the ridges
where weak upslope flow could promote lingering light snow or
flurries into overnight hours (with little to no additional
accumulations).

Highs on Saturday and Sunday reach the mid to upper 30s for much
of the area. Lows Saturday night continue a slight warming
trend and remain in the mid to upper 20s, while lows Sunday
night drop back into the teens and low 20s under post-frontal
northwest flow and cold advection.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue into early next week.
- Another round of winter weather potential towards mid week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry post-frontal flow and building surface high pressure keep
the area dry and cold to start next week. After that, model
spread increases regarding the timing and potency of another
trough that digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some
solutions suggest a scenario in which the local area received a
glancing blow with notable wintry weather remaining largely
north of the area. However, there is also a cluster depicting a
scenario in which a deeper mid-level trough over central Canada
allows the mid week disturbance to take a more southerly path,
bringing the bulk of precipitation to the Ohio Valley and local
area. As such, the mid week system will be one that warrants
watching, though at this time ensemble probabilities appear to
favor the former scenario over the latter.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- VFR prevails overnight
- MVFR cigs arrive near/after 12z Friday
- Snow remains largely south of MGW
-------------------------------------------------------------------

VFR prevails across the region at this time. High-level clouds
are beginning to push north through WV from a system along the
Eastern Seaboard. Calm winds expected overnight.

MVFR cig restrictions begin to ramp up closer to 12z across our
southern ports and then through the morning hours for the
remainder. Uncertainty remains for PIT/HLG/FKL as modeling
currently puts the gradient in cigs near each of these ports.
Probabilities for MVFR cigs between 12-18z are >90% for all
ports south and east of this line. BVI (~70%) and ZZV (~40%)
feature lower chances but even these rise around 20% between 18z
Fri-00z Sat. There can be some fluctuations near the MVFR/VFR
border tomorrow afternoon, especially for ports west or on the
aforementioned gradient. MVFR cigs look to reinforce tomorrow
evening.

Outlook... Periodic restrictions seem likely through the
weekend and into early next week with crossing systems
continuing low end chances for snow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...AK