032
FXUS61 KPBZ 071130
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
630 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow accumulation expected on Sunday primarily north and
east of Pittsburgh. Continued rounds of rain and snow chances
will prevail through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Another disturbance brings minor snowfall accumulations to
  areas north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges; a rain/snow mix
  with little accumulations expected elsewhere
- Building high pressure Sunday night promotes efficient
  cooling and low temps drop back into the teens
---------------------------------------------------------------

The previously saturated 925-850 mb level has dried some here
early this evening and any localized areas of freezing have
wound down.

The forecast period begins with the first of several shortwaves
rounding through the flow and advancing across the Ohio Valley.
This shortwave brings another push of mostly snow across the
region, largely north of I-70 and in the ridges.

Precipitation likely begins as all snow across the region
before there could be a little changeover to a rain snow mix
across the lowlands south of I-80. Models have backed off on the
snowfall out of this system and although flakes could be
flying, an accumulating snow is less likely outside of the PA/WV
ridges and south of I-80. HREF probabilities for at least an
inch are largely below 20% in and along I-80 but climb into the
60-80% range for the ridges of Westmoreland and Fayette
counties. Probabilities closer to Pittsburgh are very low for
any accumulation and even the probability of a measurable
snowfall event is around 10-20% at most.

A cold front sweeps the region later in the day Sunday,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. This combined with
possible overnight clearing and slackening of winds as high
pressure slides in could allow for another good radiative
cooling night. Low temperatures by sunrise on Monday look like
they could be in the low teens north and east of Pittsburgh,
with high teens and closer to 20 for much the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and cold Monday under high pressure
- Another light snow north of Pittsburgh Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

A brief stay over of high pressure Monday promotes light winds
and high temperatures largely below freezing. Clouds slowly
increase through the day ahead of our next system.

Our 2nd shortwave builds through the flow and advances through
the Great Lakes by Monday night. At the SFC a weak low is
forecast to move through the far northern Great Lakes during the
day on Tuesday. As such our POPs increase mainly north of
Pittsburgh during the daylight hours of Tuesday. Thermal
profiles look to support a melting snowfall as modest WAA
supports daytime highs in the mid 30s across much of the region.
Accumulations on roadways look unlikely from this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue through the long term.
- Additional rounds of potential winter weather with a series
  of passing disturbances mid and late week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By the middle to later portions of next week, a broad trough is
progged to move across the Great Lakes and Northeast,
continuing the active pattern.

After a couple of dry hours Tuesday evening, another, deeper
system chases quickly on the heels of the Tuesday daytime
clipper. Continued WAA across the region leaves overnight lows
near that freezing mark but supports daytime highs climbing into
the low 40s on Wednesday. As such the next system looks to be
more of a rain/snow mix, with snow most likely across the ridges
and north of I-80 and rain favored elsewhere. Accumulations of
snow, most likely in the PA/WV ridges and north of I-80, would
wind down through the day as temperatures climb and many areas
turn over to rain. The cold front sweeps the region late
Wednesday turning remaining precipitation back to snow. QPF
estimates from this system remain largely between 0.25-0.50
inches.

POPs lower slightly across the lowlands on Thursday favoring a
brief stint of lake enhancement and upslope flow on the heels of
the Wednesday system. Once again, timing uncertainties in the
departure of the midweek system and the arrival of the late week
system are spreading POPs widely across Thursday, but some stay
of dry weather is expected during this time frame.

Yet another clipper looks to sweep the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley during the Thursday night/Friday time frame. The exact
track of this system will determine what kind and how much
precipitation we can squeeze out. At this time, ensembles are
rather spread on their depictions of this track, but a more
southern track would give us a better chance of seeing impactful
winter weather. A more northern track would favor a rain/snow
mix with the best snow in the ridges and north of I-80, similar
to Wednesday.

Temperatures in the extended period look to fluctuate some but
with the trough advancing into the region, generally trend down
as we head towards the weekend. Differing depictions of the
depth of the trough as it moves overhead lead to a wide spread
in temperatures for next weekend but ensembles that favor a
deeper trough feature another shot of very cold air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevailing MVFR ceilings are ongoing and expected to continue
throughout much of the TAF period. Some reductions to high-end
IFR will be possible this afternoon, primarily near and north of
PIT where there is also a chance for a few passing light snow
showers. Confidence in any snow (and associated restrictions)
drops the farther south you go. With probabilities of any
precipitation only ~20% at ZZV, HLG, and MGW, no precipitation
was noted at those locations for now. Elsewhere, a mix of
PROB30s to the south (lower confidence) and TEMPOs to the north
(higher confidence) have been maintained to reflect estimated
onset and end times.

Shower activity tapers overnight as a weak cold front moves
through and light west winds shift to more northwesterly or
northerly. MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail following the
frontal passage with increasing indication that a brief period
of IFR could be possible within the post-frontal cold advection
regime. Have trended ceilings a bit more pessimistic with the
latest TAFs but haven`t locked in prevailing IFR with this
update until more time is available to evaluate subsequent
model updates.

Outlook...
The overall weather pattern through the week strongly favors
shortwave movement within upper troughing that brings
precipitation and restriction potential to the area generally
every other day. Precipitation chances remain largely in the
form of snow, save for short periods of rain at southern
terminals during daytime hours.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Cermak/MLB