935
FXUS61 KPBZ 240050
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
750 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns Sunday under high pressure. Rain chances
increase again on Monday and Monday night with a crossing cold
front. An unsettled weather pattern then returns from mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation tapers off this evening
- Patchy light rain possible tonight in warm advection
------------------------------------------------------------------

Coverage area of light showers and drizzle continues to
decrease this evening as ridging begins to build across the
region. Warm advection will ensue overnight with building
heights and flow backing more westerly. Overrruning will allow
for patchy light rain overnight, but no significant QPF is
expected.

Overcast and humid conditions with increasing warm advection
will keep overnight lows roughly 5-10 degrees above average --
mid to upper 30s for most of the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Sunday
- Rain returns Monday and Monday night with a cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley region on
Sunday, resulting in a gradual clearing trend and dry weather.
Continued flat upper ridging, ahead of a Central CONUS trough,
will maintain the dry weather Sunday night. The digging trough
will track eastward early in the week, as a surface low develops
in response across the Midwest. This low will track across the
Great Lakes/Ontario region by late Monday, pulling a cold front
across the area.

Rain chances will increase through the day as the front
approaches, and jet enhanced ascent occurs. This rain will
continue Monday night as the front completes its passage.
Rainfall amounts are expected to range from a quarter to a half
of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain/snow chances Tuesday with an upper trough
- Mainly dry Wednesday
- Rain/snow chances return by late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The lingering upper trough, and cold NW flow, will result in
rain and snow chances mainly north of PIT on Tuesday, before the
trough exits. Surface high pressure under broad troughing aloft
should maintain dry weather and cooler than average
temperatures on Wednesday.

Model ensembles indicate a trough will advance out of the Plains
region Wednesday, as a surface low develops across the TN
Valley region. Increasing moisture and ascent in southwest flow
ahead of the trough, and on the northern side of the developing
surface low, will return rain and snow chances to the region
Wednesday night and Thursday. Operational models differ on the
positioning of the surface low, and the northern extent of any
precipitation. Stayed close to the ensemble blends for the
Thanksgiving forecast, with uncertainty in the details.

Rain and snow become more likely Thursday night and Friday as
the initial trough crosses the region, and another approaches
from the northwest. Overall, temperatures will average below
seasonable levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain and drizzle has largely ended across the area this
evening as cold advection ends and ridging begins to build
across the area. Additional patchy, light showers may be
possible overnight with warm advection, but probabilities remain
low. Confidence in this is highest at FKL, where PROB30 -DZ was
added.

MVFR Cigs prevail this evening, but widespread degradation to
IFR is expected after 06z. Improvement is then expected by
midday Sunday, with return to VFR in the afternoon for most
terminals outside FKL/DUJ.

Outlook...
Restriction chances likely return later Monday into Tuesday
with a cold frontal passage. Additional shower and restriction
chances are expected midweek.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...Rackley