162
FXUS61 KPBZ 292328
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through the week with high pressure in
control. Above normal temperatures to start will cool to more
seasonable values the second half of the week with then more
warming possible next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and unseasonably warm
- Valley fog possible again tonight
---------------------------------------------------------------

Strong 1020+ mb surface high pressure remains entrenched and in
control across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and the dry pattern
continues as a result. Upper level clouds will continue to stream
overhead from the south with moisture extending from Tropical Storm
Imelda. This will mute high temperatures a few degrees across most
of the area, though our far eastern Ohio counties should remain on
the fringes of the cloud shield and get a few degrees warmer. Still,
low 80s are likely for most of the area with mid 80s away from the
thickest clouds. New Philadelphia`s record high today is 85F and the
current forecast is right around 85, so we could see a tied or
broken record there by this evening.

Light and variable wind this afternoon will remain that way through
the overnight hours. With the cloud coverage will come 1) mild
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s and 2) a decreased
footprint of fog development. Afternoon mixing out of dew points on
Sunday resulted in less fog Sunday night, and think the same should
happen today, so any development will remain confined to the valleys
and where skies are clearer in eastern Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gradual clearing on Tuesday
- Dry conditions continue
- Temperatures gradually cool
----------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles remain confident in the current ridge development.
Currently, there is a strong upper-level ridge extending from the
Carolinas northwestward to North Dakota/eastern Montana. With this
strong ridge in place, cloud coverage from Humberto or Imelda is
expected to be kept east by the cool north-northeasterly wind. The
ridge will maintain strength as it gradually moves eastward to
extend from southwestern Kentucky northeastward to southern Quebec
by Thursday.

During this time, high temperatures are expected to cool from the
low 80s Tuesday to the low 70s Thursday with overnight temperatures
following a similar pattern. This is due to the cold air advection
from the northerly flow during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The ensembles remain confident through Saturday with the broad ridge
in place. Temperatures are forecast to return into the upper-70s/low
80s. Saturday night, an upper level trough will begin to approach
the region, however, the next chance for precipitation (>30%) will
not occur until Tuesday. Until then, temperatures are expected to
remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under high pressure. BKN
to OVC cirrus will continue to stream overhead with moisture
extending well to the north of the tropical low off of the SE
coast. The back edge of the clouds likely stays east of ZZV
where more SCT to FEW will be the theme. Wind will be light and
variable.

Some valley fog development is possible again tonight, but
current thinking is still that the increased cloud cover should
mitigate radiational cooling enough to make any fog that does
form less impactful both in terms of coverage and density. If
upper clouds retreat in time, most likely impact at any area
terminal would be FKL and DUJ where some brief restrictions
could settle in close to sunrise. However, overall confidence is
still too low to include mention in TAFs.

Clouds retreat to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. Some cu
development is possible mainly in areas where there are no (or
fewer) high clouds, where better boundary layer heating and
mixing will allow convective temperatureallowing fors to be
reached. Winds hold out of the northeast around 5-10 knots.

.OUTLOOK....
Outside of patchy morning valley fog, VFR is expected through
late week under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/MLB