015
FXUS61 KPBZ 021247
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
847 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog is possible early this morning, then mostly dry conditions
are expected today outside of a stray shower. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon, with dry weather
for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly dry conditions today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Update...
Dense Fog Advisory has been expired. Morning fog/stratus will
continue to dissipate as the region continues to experience
diurnal heating.

Previous discussion...
Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected after the fog
mixes out. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two this afternoon
during peak heating, but the region looks to remain capped, and
the probability for any development is low. Dry weather
continues tonight.

After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in
the mid-80s for most. Lows will be near-average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
- Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth.
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

----------------------------------------------------------------

A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track
southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very
dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still, isolated
thunderstorms are possible. NBM probs give a 20-35% chance for
rain in the afternoon, mostly across PA. Given the dry air
aloft and quite substantial sfc-based CAPE, should note that
there will be a conditional threat for downbursts... if more
robust updrafts are able to develop. Machine learning guidance
does marginally support a low-end severe weather threat as well.
Will continue to monitor this threat. Any convection will
quickly diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating.

Afternoon temperatures should remain a few degrees above
seasonal average, while temperatures Thursday night may dip a
degree or two below average.

Beautiful weather looks to be in store for the Fourth with sfc high
pressure and ridging overhead. Models do develop a few isolated
diurnal showers and thunderstorms to our west, but this will
likely remain outside our forecast area. The chance for a stray
shower across eastern Ohio is low enough to preclude any
mention. Otherwise, the forecast looks great for outdoor plans
and evening fireworks. Temperatures will run a few degrees above
average under partly to mostly sunny skies, and heat indices in
the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Temperatures fall
back to near-normal Friday night

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend
- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry
and warm weather again Saturday. Rising heights and southerly
flow should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM
probs for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio and the Pittsburgh
urban heat island (75-80%). Elsewhere, probs are generally
around 20-30%.

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week,
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances returning.

Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to
approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the
region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or
above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of
Heat Advisory criteria remain low as heat indices remain in the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of IFR fog are expected to develop through early morning
with clearing skies behind an exiting cold front, and low level
moisture in place. LIFR is most likely from DUJ-LBE-AGC-HLG-MGW,
where heavier amounts of rain fell on Tuesday, providing greater
low level moisture for fog.

THe fog should quickly dissipate between 12 and 13Z as mixing
begins, and as a ridge of surface high pressure builds in. The
CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered diurnal
cumulus layer should be in place through the day, dissipating in
the evening. High clouds are expected to begin to increase
Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Outlook...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
with a Thursday cold front. A lack of available moisture with
the front will likely be a limiting factor in storm development.
VFR is then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves
across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...WM/Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Lupo
AVIATION...WM