Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
621 FXUS61 KPBZ 081157 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 757 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The overall forecast remains largely on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A late evening/overnight round will be more scattered but present a slightly higher wind gust potential. 2) After a break on Sunday, daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday and remain in the forecast through at least Thursday, with the continued presence of severe and flooding threats. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Most of this activity should depart after 13Z or so with the initial shortwave. After a lull, another round of likely more scattered showers and storms is expected during the late afternoon through around midnight or so with another shortwave in the flow. With a drier overall column by that point and correspondingly more subdued PWAT of 1.2 to 1.5 inches, the heavy rain threat should be a little lower. Nevertheless, that drier air aloft will help tick up the threat of gusty to borderline severe winds, as 1500-2000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and around 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE appear likely at least into the early to middle evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... The second round should end by 06Z tonight, and then a needed break still appears likely through Sunday and Sunday night. Model soundings continue to suggest a drier column and mid-level capping that would prevent convective development. Dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s, after today`s readings in the 70s, should lend a less sticky feel to the air. The overall trough remains in place through much of next week. Daily showers and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Monday through at least Thursday, as several shortwave ripples continue to ride through on the flow. Heavy rain potential will need continued scrutiny, as precipitable water values remain above-normal in a climatological sense. WPC will likely place our region in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall on that day. Severe weather chances show an uptick as well, particularly earlier in the week according to the long-range machine-learning convective guidance. This makes sense, as this period shows the best juxtaposition of instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and decent low-level flow. Some uncertainty remains among the various ensemble members that will be better resolved in time. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Heaviest precipitation remains to the south impacting MGW and possibly LBE. Light showers are still possible at PIT, AGC, and DUJ this morning. After precipitation largely departs, lingering MVFR ceilings will slowly lift and achieve VFR by midday/early afternoon as daytime mixing commences. Southwest wind may gust to between 15 and 20 knots as well. Another, more scattered round of convection appears likely tonight, which will be handled by PROB30 groups for now. Although a direct hit at any one airport will be a little less likely, wind gusts have the potential to be stronger for this round. Outlook... Shortwave riding should provide a needed break from convective activity on Sunday. Daily showers and thunderstorm chances then return for Monday through Wednesday, with restrictions possible. Patchy fog and stratus remains possible each morning with stubborn low level moisture. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...CL/Lupo