667
FXUS61 KPBZ 021157
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
657 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Borderline Advisory snow for the ridges of West Virginia
  Tuesday
- Winter weather headlines likely on Friday
- Cold weather headlines likely early Saturday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold Weather Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker County,
WV through 11AM today.

2) Snow south of Pittsburgh Tuesday

3) Snow impacts likely Friday

4) Cold weather headlines likely late Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A Cold Weather Advisory is still in effect for eastern Tucker
County until 11AM today, with wind chill values already
measuring between -10 to -20 degrees as of 1AM this morning.
Other areas should anticipate wind chill values from the single
digits to -10 degrees. No further cold weather headlines are
expected this morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Snow is increasingly likely to affect areas south of Pittsburgh
from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. This is
due to a low- pressure system developing over the Great Plains
and venturing into southern West Virginia. Expect hazardous
travel conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday along I-68,
with snowfall rates potentially ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 inches
per hour. Current totals along West Virginia ridges are
forecast at 2-3 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory may be issued
for Tucker County in the next forecast update as new high-
resolution data becomes available.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The forecast strongly indicates that extended cold weather will
persist through mid-February across the region. This is due to a
persistent, strong high-pressure ridge over the West Coast
causing a low-pressure trough towards the Great Lakes and East
Coast. Consequently, high temperatures in the Ohio River Valley
are expected to remain below freezing for the next several days.

The likelihood of minor winter weather impacts developing on
Friday is increasing, driven by a passing trough and associated
surface low over the Great Lakes. The NBM shows a high
probability (70-95%) for at least one inch of snow across the
entire region. The chance for three inches or more ranges
between 30-75%, which may lead to a Winter Weather Advisory
being issued mid-week. These higher snowfall totals are most
likely along the ridges. Additionally, the potential for a
Winter Storm Watch/Warning (+6") is elevated in the ridges of of
Tucker County. Regardless of the final snowfall amounts, travel
impacts are expected throughout the day Friday into early
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 4....
Conditions will turn sharply colder overnight Friday into early
Saturday as a front arrives from the northwest and 925mb
temperatures drop from -4 to -20 Celsius. With surface temperatures
dropping near zero and wind gusts reaching up to 30mph, wind
chill values are projected to hit -10 to -15 for a large portion
of the region. The return of cold weather headlines is likely
early Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...

1) VFR, save briefly lingering low stratus at DUJ this morning.

2) MVFR/IFR chances increase in light snow chances late Monday.
------------------------------------------------------------

The back edge of an IFR stratus deck is working its way through
DUJ early this morning and expected to clear not long after
12z. DUJ will then join all other sites with VFR conditions
through most of the daytime hours today with a light southwest
wind.

Mid cloud coverage will overspread today as upstream
observations indicate initial cigs around 8-10 kft dropping to
MVFR a few hours after. Guidance is not bullish on widespread
snow late Monday, but given the regime of efficient snow
production in the past and ascent in the low-levels through a
saturated layer into mixed-phase clouds, it seems more likely
than models might allude of light snow in the late afternoon
through overnight.

60-90% chance of MVFR spreads from west to east reaching ZZV
around 18z, PIT around 22z, and LBE after 00z. Roughly a 40% to
70% chance of IFR vis and cig fills in shortly after with
higher chances of snow. Snow is most likely to produce the
highest cig falls to the north and west of PIT, decreasing in
intensity as it spreads to the east, with a large spread in
potential vis from 1/4SM to 6SM; opted to take vis falls to 2SM
for now, closer to the 50th percentile of guidance.

Some lifting is possible, along with a decrease in snowfall
intensity, by daybreak, but still at least a 75% of at least
MVFR prevailing into the morning hours on Tuesday.

Outlook...
Mainly cig restrictions are likely on Tuesday with another
crossing shortwave trough. A surface wave tracking across the
Lower Ohio Valley region could also spread some snow across
areas south of PIT. VFR should return Thursday under a ridge of
high pressure. Widespread snow and restrictions are expected
Friday with a crossing cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ514.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...MLB/Milcarek