938
FXUS61 KPBZ 100102 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
902 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thunderstorm intensity will continue to diminish through the
evening, with the potential for severe storms ending.
Frost/freeze concerns remain for Monday night, with perhaps a
slightly higher potential for freezing temperatures in some
locations north of I-80.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into tonight

2) Great Lakes and eastern CONUS troughing will maintain near to
below average temperature and periodic rain chances into next week,
with potential for frost/freeze concerns Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move
southeast across the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
Mixing earlier in the day resulted in dew points dropping into
the 40s and 50s across the region. The latest mesoanalysis
shows the ML CAPE has diminished to less than 250 j/kg, and this
trend will continue this evening. The 00Z PIT sounding showed
waning support for storms/severe storms as well. Effective shear
remains elevated in the vicinity of the line, with around 40 kt
on the latest mesoanalysis. While this should maintain the
showers/storms through late evening, the severe potential will
continue to diminish.

The showers should become more scattered overnight as the front
drops slowly south across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ensembles remain in good agreement that large-scale
troughing remains in place over the Great Lakes/northeast CONUS
through at least the end of the next work week, with near to
below- normal temperatures throughout. A few shortwaves move
through the larger trough through the period, providing shower
chances. Minor strength/timing differences remain in the various
solutions.

One such wave completes passage on Monday, with surface high
pressure building in its wake Monday night, along with 850mb
temperatures dipping below zero. There is fairly high confidence in
clear and calm conditions as the high center moves overhead. This
will represent our next (potentially last until fall?) chance at
frost/freeze conditions. NBM probabilities of minimum temperatures
36 or below are 50 percent or greater to the north and east of
Pittsburgh, as well as in valley locations in the terrain. Headlines
may eventually be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areawide VFR begins the TAF period. A line of currently non-
severe thunderstorms is on the doorstep of the area. At this
time only one or two embedded thunderstorms look to be severe
but these trends will be monitored. The low levels are expected
to decouple here shortly with gusts abating, but heavier
thunderstorms can still bring wind gusts between 40-50 mph.
Cloud bases in these storms are still VFR and it seems possible
that all ports, even those that see thunderstorms, could remain
VFR through the evening with a possible reduction in CIGs to
MVFR overnight.

Storms advance southeast between now and 06Z, with decaying
lightning chances as a transition to broken showers becomes
increasingly. After 6Z Sun, brief periods of MVFR are favored
for all airports save for MGW and ZZV where they should remain
VFR through the rest of the night. Wind will be less than 10
knots.

MVFR may still be holding on by sunrise on Sunday, but
continued dry advection behind the front and subtle high
pressure intrusion favor scattering and raising of CIGs north of
I-70 by early afternoon. South of I-70 there could be another
round of spotty showery activity Sunday afternoon for MGW.

Outlook... VFR should return areawide Monday/Tuesday under high
pressure. Restriction chances return in rainfall with a
crossing low pressure system on Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM/CL
AVIATION...McMullen/AK