792
FXUS61 KPBZ 240728
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
328 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue today. There is a slight
chance of a late afternoon and evening thunderstorm mainly
north and west of Pittsburgh. Hot and humid weather will
continue Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing through the day with an approaching cold front.
Unsettled weather is then expected through the weekend as the
front stalls across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Extreme Heat Warning/ Heat Advisory in effect
- Mainly dry and hot again today
- Conditional potential for an afternoon severe storm
---------------------------------------------------------------

A 598 dam 500 mb high will remain centered across the Ohio Valley
region today. Low level ridging at 850 mb also remains across the
region. With similar conditions to those seen on Monday, expect high
temperature in the lower to mid 90s for the region outside of the
higher terrain areas. Heat indices will likely be around 105
again where the Extreme Heat Warning continues, with readings
generally ranging from 95 to 102 in the Heat Advisory area.

Capping warmth aloft should also help to keep the area dry
into the afternoon. The cap does erode some late this afternoon,
though dry and warm air aloft could limit updraft growth, and the
potential for thunderstorm development. Maintained some slight
chance pops mainly north and west of PIT, where a more favorable
potential for a thunderstorm is possible given any outflows from
convection to the NW along an approaching cold front. If a storm
does become organized, the dry air aloft will enhance the DCAPE,
resulting in a damaging wind potential, mainly north of I 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories continue through Wednesday
- Shower/storm chances increase Wednesday afternoon
- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe storms Wednesday
  and Thursday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Any early evening convection north of PIT should quickly wane with
the loss of peak heating. Much of the remainder of the night will be
dry with the upper high in place.

The high will begin to drift southward on Wednesday, as a
shortwave trough and an associated surface cold front track
along its northern periphery. Another hot and humid day is
expected, with the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories
continuing. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
through the day as the front and shortwave approach. SB CAPE is
progged to range from 2000-3000 j/kg, through shear is expected
to be minimal. Model soundings indicate dry mid level air
should be in place as well, which will enhance a damaging wind
gust potential. With weak flow aloft, storm motion will be
slow. This, combined with elevated PWATs of 1.8 to 2.0,
localized flash flooding will be possible.

Convection should begin to wane in the evening as instability
begins to diminish, though showers and thunderstorm chances
will continue overnight as the surface front stalls across the
area. The front is expected to become quasi-stationary
Thursday, with convection again increasing through the day with
diurnal heating. SB CAPE is progged to reach 1000-2000 j/kg,
with weak flow aloft. A lesser potential for severe storms is
expected, though PWATs from 2.0 to 2.1, combined with the slow
storm motion, will again result in a flash flood potential,
especially for areas that see heavy rain on Wednesday.

Expect the showers/storms to diminish somewhat again Thursday
night with the loss of daytime heating, though elevated
instability will maintain shower/storm chances overnight with
the quasi stationary front in the vicinity.

Warm and humid weather will continue, though with convection
each day expect heat indices to be below heat headline criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Active weather continues with daily shower and thunderstorm
  chances
- Potential for storms and locally heavy rainfall through the
  period
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate the upper high will continue to
retrograde to the SW into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft is
expected across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances
embedded in this flow will maintain daily shower and
thunderstorm chances across the region into early next week.
These will likely be diurnally driven, with POPs peaking in the
afternoon and evening hours.

PWATs are progged to remain elevated into early next week,
though increase flow aloft later Monday and Tuesday could begin
to result in a faster storm motion. The potential for strong
storms and locally heavy rainfall is expected to persist. A
trough and surface cold front is currently progged for a
Tuesday passage, which should bring an end to the active
pattern after FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Nighttime microphysics imagery from the GOES-19 satellite shows
mostly clear skies from Indiana through western Pennsylvania
and eastward toward the Atlantic Coast under the influence of
high pressure. With the boundary layer decoupling overnight,
winds will remain light through dawn. As surface mixing begins
between 12Z and 15Z, westerly winds will increase and cumulus
clouds will start to develop (between 4kft to 5kft).

Between 19Z to 23Z, there is potential for thunderstorm
development north of Pittsburgh if outflow from convection over
the Midwest moves southeastward, weakening the warm cap aloft.
Terminals that may be impacted, noted by some high-resolution
models, are BVI,PIT, FKL. However, confidence is still low on
this scenario.

Outlook...
The weakening of high pressure will return the chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday into
Saturday; heavy downpours may restriction visibility at isolated
terminals along with strong wind gusts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures will be in jeopardy over the next several days:


Tuesday June 24th
Pittsburgh, PA:         96F (1882)              72F (1884)
Zanesville, OH:         98F (1930)              73F (1937)
Morgantown, WV:         94F (1921, 1949)        76F (1924)
Dubois, PA:             88F (1966)              67F (2013)
Wheeling, WV:           98F (1933, 1943)        73F (1908)
New Philadelphia, OH:   94F (1964)              70F (1975)

Wednesday June 25th
Pittsburgh, PA:         98F (1988)              75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH:         101F (1988)             72F (1952)
Morgantown, WV:         94F (1921, 1952, 1988)  74F (1952)
Dubois, PA:             91F (1966)              67F (2000)
Wheeling, WV:           97F (1943)              75F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH:   92F (1966, 2002, 2005)  68F (2013)

Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA:         95F (1966)              75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH:         97F (1952)              73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV:         96F (1952)              74F (1952)
Dubois, PA:             91F (1966)              66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV:           96F (1943, 1952)        73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH:   99F (1988)              71F (2022)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ007>009-013-015-
     016-022-031-074-076>078.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ014-020-
     021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>513.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan
CLIMATE...MLB