549
FXUS61 KPBZ 121132
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
732 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low may increase the chances of light rain showers
east of Pittsburgh, lingering into Monday. Dry and warm
conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a building
ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light showers activity, mainly east of Pittsburgh
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
- Coastal low may bring rain showers into portions of the region
  Sunday into Sunday night
---------------------------------------------------------------

A coastal low continues to ride northward up the Eastern
Seaboard today. Northeast winds will transport Atlantic
moisture into eastern and central Pennsylvania and low- level
cloud coverage is expected to increase significantly east of
Pittsburgh. Any precipitation that develops today into tonight
will likely be along the ridges and perhaps a bit more to the
west but chances are slim at best. A tightening pressure
gradient along the Laurel Highlands and West Virginia ridges may
also lead to breezy conditions from early Sunday morning
through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier conditions expected Tuesday and much of Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------

As the coastal low moves further north up the east coast, the
chance of precip will lessen. NBM models for Monday and
probability of exceedance values for even 0.01 is 10% or less.
Thus, Monday will likely be dry as well as Monday night. Drier
conditions are likely early Tuesday as a ridge axis shifts from
the Plains into the Ohio River Valley. At this time there seems
to be enough agreement that the wave exits the Eastern Seaboard
on Tuesday and that subtle height rises help push highs back
into the low to mid 70s (widespread probabilities greater than
70% for highs > 70 degrees south of I- 80).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Cooler and dry mid-week before uncertainty builds late-week with
large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Heading into the middle of next week, the ensembles diverge on
exactly how they interact a Hudson Bay trough and a high
confidence central CONUS ridge but most come to a northwest flow
regime across the region by midweek with Canadian high pressure
settling across the region. This would favor a nudge towards
lower temperatures, clearer skies, and dry conditions.

By the end of next week, ensembles diverge on pressing the central
CONUS ridge eastward towards us or allowing the Hudson Bay trough to
cutoff across the Northeast. A cutoff would favor continued
northwest flow, while parking under the ridge would return
unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We are beginning to see the first wave of light showers moving
across the mountains at this time. As yet there hasn`t been enough
moisture to bring about widespread MVFR CIGs in our eastern ports.
BVI`s IFR CIGs are actually due to a separate local stratus deck
moving westward, the bottom edge of which is expected to slide just
north of PIT.

Low level moisture is expected to tick up over the next couple hours
bringing SCT MVFR decks to BKN across eastern ports first then
slowly flowing westward.

Winds are expected to pick up and become gusty out of the east as
our morning inversion breaks. CIGs are expected to lift out some
through the day as the lowest levels of the atmosphere remain
relatively dry with a downsloping east wind a contributing factor
for our ports nearest the ridges. Scattered light showers and
periods of BR remain possible this morning but VIS restrictions are
expected to be short-lived and probabilities drop as we move towards
afternoon.

Models hint at another possible drop down to MVFR and possibly IFR
CIGs overnight tonight with a sharp east/west cutoff. These chances
are highest nearest the terrain for DUJ/LBE/MGW and look to set in
as we possibly lose our easterly downslope component overnight due
to movement of the coastal low.


.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will build back into the region by midweek,
minimizing restriction potential until precipitation chances
return late next weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/CL
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger/AK
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...AK