350
FXUS61 KPBZ 030023
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow chances mainly north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges
Saturday night. Otherwise dry this weekend. Warmer temperatures
and periodic rain chances are expected Tuesday through the end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering light snow north of I-80 wanes through the afternoon
- Dry and cold tonight with low temperatures in the teens

---------------------------------------------------------------

7PM Update...The current conditions show mainly high pressure in
control with the exception of some flurries still flying north
of Beaver County. Updated the grids to keep the mention of
flurries in through the next few hours. Also freshened up the
temps and dew points, the rest of the forecast is on track.

Light lake-effect snow is ongoing this afternoon north of I-80
with flurries making it as far south as the Rt 422 corridor.
These should wane through the remaining daytime hours as
prevailing boundary-layer winds gradually shift this activity
north of the area.

A dry night is then forecast for the entire area as high
pressure builds into the region from the west. Temperatures
continue to run below seasonal levels, with lows dipping into
the teens areawide by early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light snow possible near/north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges
  late Saturday into Saturday night; light accumulations and
  minimal impact expected
- Dry weather returns Sunday as a warming trend begins

----------------------------------------------------------------

Building broad surface high pressure across the central US will
keep dry weather in the forecast on Saturday while temperature
trends remain steady as highs reach the upper 20s. A weak
passing disturbance may bring light snow to areas near and
north of Pittsburgh and to the ridges of SW PA and northern WV
late Saturday and Saturday night. This system will likely be
moisture starved, resulting in light rates and minimal snow
accumulation. Even the HREF and NBM 95th percentile snow totals
both suggest a dusting to at most an inch in the ridges. Given
that, impacts appear unlikely at this time.

Mainly dry conditions resume on Sunday as the upper disturbance
exits to the east, but a few lake-effect flurries will remain
possible for the I-80 corridor as boundary-layer winds veer
more northwesterly.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the
weekend, but a slow warming trend begin on Sunday as highs climb
a few degrees warmer into the low 30s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above-normal temperatures and periodic precipitation chances
  throughout next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Numerical guidance has backed off a bit on precipitation chances
with a weak disturbance that crosses north of the area early
Monday. There are non-zero chances for some light snow or
flurries mainly north of Pittsburgh, but with little to no
accumulation expected, impacts appears unlikely.

Meanwhile, long-range ensembles signal a shift in the pattern
early next week as the NE CONUS upper trough finally departs to
the east and zonal flow develops over our region. This will
allow temperatures to moderate back towards seasonal averages,
and the forecast sees fairly robust warming through the week as
a result. NBM means push high temperatures above freezing
nearly areawide Monday afternoon and most areas near/above 50F
by Thursday or Friday.

Zonal flow will steer a series of weak impulses across the
region throughout the week, allowing for light, non-impactful
precipitation chances almost daily starting Tuesday. Given the
warming trend, the predominant ptype should be rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Flurries/light snow north of PIT this evening
- VFR returns south of I-70 tonight
- VFR for most airports on Saturday
------------------------------------------------------------

A cold WNW boundary layer flow across the Great Lakes will
maintain MVFR cigs and light snow/flurries generally north of a
PHD-PIT-LBE line this evening. The flow is progged to veer more
to the NW overnight, which could bring MVFR cigs back swd toward
PIT and AGC, before backing flow Saturday morning lifts the
stratocu back north.

FKL and DUJ could stay MVFR much of the day Saturday as
westerly flow persists. Elsewhere, expect VFR, though mid level
clouds will increase ahead of the next approaching shortwave
trough. This trough will likely spread light snow and patchy
MVFR conditions across the area Saturday night as it crosses the
Upper Ohio Valley region.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely Saturday night into Sunday with the
crossing shortwave trough. VFR should return Sunday and Monday
under high pressure. Restriction and rain potential is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday with crossing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Rackley
NEAR TERM...Cermak/Rackley/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Rackley
LONG TERM...Cermak/Rackley
AVIATION...WM