517
FXUS61 KPBZ 040557
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
157 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures will slowly rise through mid week while
high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. Low probability
shower and thunderstorm chances favoring the afternoons return
to the forecast during the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry conditions expected under high pressure.
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry
weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. Temperatures begin
to trend slightly warmer - in the mid 80s for most - but with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s conditions should remain
relatively comfortable. The Pennsylvania Department of
Environmental Protection has issued a code ORANGE air quality
alert for Mercer, Venango, and Forest counties in NW PA until
Midnight tonight. Visit airnow.gov for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather continues.
- A stray shower possible over northern West Virginia Tuesday
  evening into Tuesday night.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing cloud cover tonight keeps overnight lows in the 60s
for most areas except at higher elevations to the east.
Conditions on Tuesday will be similar to today, with highs in
the mid 80s but dewpoints in the upper 50s keeping conditions
relatively comfortable. Can`t totally rule out a stray shower
over northern West Virginia Tuesday evening into Tuesday night,
but chances are low, generally 20% or less in the lowlands and
around 30% in the ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers/storms return during the second half
  of the week and into next weekend.
- Heat potentially returns next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers
returning midweek as an upper trough moves into the eastern
CONUS. Moisture is progged to be limited and largely in the mid
levels, so do not expect much in terms of overall QPF. The
probability for a half inch or greater over any 48-hr period
during the second half of the week is 30% or less, with the
highest of those probabilities over the northern WV ridges.

A number of models are favoring warm and muggy conditions
returning late week into next weekend. The NBM 25th percentile
depicts temperatures in the upper-80s/near 90 degrees and dew
points above 65 degrees on Saturday. The current NWS HeatRisk
forecast has moderate to major heat-related impacts Saturday
and Sunday, especially in valleys and urban areas like the
Pittsburgh metro. Machine learning also notes a slight increase
in probabilities for diurnal thunderstorm activity Friday into
Saturday, though the potential of strong to severe storms is
still considered low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected to continue at all ports save for a possible
disruption in fog this morning at FKL. Patchy valley fog was
continued as a persistence forecast for FKL with light NE`rly winds.
Elsewhere high pressure maintains dry weather with milky skies
obscured some due to wildfire smoke. Winds veer and become more
E`rly and pick up in speed (generally less than 10KTs) Monday. High
clouds are expected to filter into the region from the west and
there remains a low chance for scattered fair weather cu near 5kft.

Outlook... High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR through mid-
week save any patchy morning fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ008-009.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...AK