Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
310 FXUS61 KPBZ 031131 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 731 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend were refined, closer to the passage of a cold front, though uncertainty remains. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and warmer through Friday 2) Shower/thunderstorm chances return over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure is expected to drift southeast across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Friday. At the same time, upper level ridging and rising 500mb heights are expected to build across the region. This should result in dry weather and a warming trend. Humidity levels should remain comfortable as well with dew points in the 40s and 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The ridge is expected to flatten Friday night into Saturday, as a shortwave trough and associated surface cold front begins to approach from the Upper Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to return Saturday from NW-SE as surface front approaches, though the initial advancement of the front should be slow with the flow aloft nearly parallel to it. The upper trough is expected to drop SE across the region Saturday night into Sunday, with the veering flow aloft pushing the surface front through. At this time, it appears the most likely time for showers and thunderstorms would be late Saturday into Saturday night for areas north of PIT, and Saturday night into Sunday from PIT southward. Current ensemble projections indicate instability and shear could be limited, though CIPS, NCAR and CSU machine learning progs show some low potential for severe storms. Current NBM probabilities for 0.50 inches of rain over the weekend range from 20-40 percent south of I-80, with 40-50 percent to the north. Probability of an inch is generally 10 percent or less. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR and a light north wind is expected through the TAF period under building high pressure. A few high clouds will cross the area especially early, and a few cu are possible near the ridges. Calm conditions expected tonight. With sunrise tomorrow, wind will freshen up to 5kts out of the southwest with daytime heating. Scattered high level clouds possible. Outlook... VFR is expected through Friday under high pressure. Restriction and shower/thunderstorm potential increases from NW-SE Saturday into Saturday night, and continue into Sunday, with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM/Lupo