031
FXUS61 KPBZ 021128
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
628 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Area temperature is likely to remain near to slightly above
normal for most of the upcoming week outside of a cooler day
Thursday after a frontal passage. Low accumulation rain showers
return Wednesday evening favoring northwest Pennsylvania, with
more widespread rain potential Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increased sunshine and supper subsidence helps create
  slightly above average temperature.

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An closer upper level low over the lower Ohio River Valley is
expected to continue digging towards the southeastern CONUS
while weak flow maintains over the forecast area. This movement
will drag northward-moving cirrus south and offer increasing
amounts of insolation (aside for scattered cumulus with diurnal
heating) that aides in area temperature being a couple degrees
above the daily average.

Light wind, clear skies are expected overnight as weak warm
advection develops in southwesterly flow ahead of a northern
stream shortwave. Though some valley locations may better
de-couple/cool, most locations should see temperature fall near
normal values for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers along the northern tier counties.
- Dry and seasonable conditions persist otherwise.
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A fast-moving shortwave will traverse northern MI toward Quebec
Monday and push a weak surface cold front through the region
during the afternoon. The moisture-starved front will offer
little more than a wind shift and slight uptick in clouds, but
enough cold advection at 850mb could create a lake-enhanced
shower that skirts areas north of I-80. Any precipitation that
falls will be short-lived and offer little in accumulation.
Otherwise, seasonable temperature with breezy afternoon winds
will characterize the day.

Strong surface high pressure developing south of the region
underneath quasi-zonal flow (slight NW angle though) portends
continued dry weather for Tuesday. Subtle cool advection will
knock area readings down a degree or two from Monday but still
be near the daily average.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Next system arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning,
  with variances on southern extent of precipitation field.
- Active pattern hints at potentially deeper trough development
  heading into the next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Fast shortwave movement out of the Pacific northwest is
expected to enter the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. Ensembles strongly
favor the trough center remaining north of the region but vary
in the degree of depth (with nominal timing variances), which
will play a major role in the southward extent of precipitation
chances. The speed of movement and high likelihood of marginal
cooling aloft/behind the surface front minimizes the risk of
developing winter precipitation types while keeping rainfall
accumulations low (current data suggests only 15-30% probability
of totals exceeding 0.25").

The brief cooldown Thursday is likely to feature dry weather as
high pressure returns underneath brief shortwave ridging.
Ensembles suggest the pattern remains active thereafter with
additional shortwave movement creating periodic precipitation
chances starting Friday. However, cluster analysis suggests that
variations in trough depth as well as timing suggests a more
unclear picture for exact timing of future precipitation periods
and degree of cooling (plus any potential temperature rebound).
It is unlikely any scenario will feature headline-worthy
weather, but a mention of higher elevation snow (low
accumulation) could enter the discussion late in the weekend
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Chances of VFR skies remain >80% through the period with surface
high pressure and upper subsidence. That will not stop some
impinging high cirrus and diurnal high-based cumulus under the
upper deck. Wind will remain very light and south-southwesterly
today, becoming calmer overnight. Wind gusts return tomorrow,
increasing into the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to support high confidence (>80%
chance) of VFR through at least mid week. A weak disturbance
brings rain chances back to the area Wednesday into Thursday,
but confidence in any associated restrictions impacting area
terminals remains low at this time.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Milcarek