268
FXUS61 KPBZ 220910
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
510 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures and dry conditions expected today with
high pressure in control. Precipitation chances return this weekend
with a crossing frontal system. Temperatures will warm Saturday
ahead of the front, but cooler, below normal temperatures will
prevail for much of next week in it`s wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Stratus continues to linger early this morning, and that along
with just enough turbulence near the surface (indicated by
forecast sounding MRi values) has mitigated fog development.
That being said, river valley fog will be possible at locations
that do see clouds clearing early this morning around daybreak.

Another dry day expected today as subtle mid-level height rises
occur downstream of a digging trough across the north-central
CONUS. Surface high pressure analyzed across the Great Lakes
will migrate east and keep a north to northeast gradient flow in
place. This, coupled with mixing into a dry boundary layer as
represented by even the "moistest" members in HREF forecast
soundings, will keep dew points low and comfortable with high
temperatures reaching into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and temperatures in the mid-80s on Friday.
- Precipitation chances return Saturday into Sunday with a passing
cold front.
----------------------------------------------------------------

A high over the Ohio River Valley will result in dry weather and
warmer temperatures through the start of the weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday. During
this time, wind will shift from light out of the east-northeast on
Friday to 5-10 mph out of the southwest by Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday evening, an approaching cold front associated with an
upper-level trough will increase chances of precipitation overnight
into Sunday. Western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia are
likely to receive measurable precipitation while there is about a
40% probability in eastern Ohio. Total rainfall accumulation will
remain relatively low with the chance for > 0.25" is 30%-40% for
areas east of Pittsburgh and less than 25% chance to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler weather during first half of next week; highs in the
  70s and lows in the 50s.
- On Tuesday, rain showers possible with northwesterly flow off
  the Great Lakes.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is high confidence in a persistent troughing over the eastern
CONUS during the first half of next week. This should keep
temperatures below average through the first half of next week with
highs in the 70s and lows in the mid to high 50s.

Latest ensemble guiance shows temperatures aloft between 3-4
standard deviations below normal by midweek, but have kept
daytime highs in the low 70s given it`s August and solar
insolation.

With the warm lake waters (20C [68F] or warmer) and cooler
850mb temperatures (4- 7C [39-45F]), there is a chance of
isolated showers during the afternoon mainly north of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stubborn MVFR stratus continues to plague FKL/DUJ and even now
extending as far southeast as BVI/PIT/AGC as low-level moisture
remains trapped under a subsidence inversion. The boundary layer
should remain turbulent overnight with light wind, and some drier
air is working in in the 925-850 mb level which should both suggest
a scattering trend of the cloud deck through the overnight hours.
Not very confident how quickly that will occur, and highest MVFR
probs will continue to lie at FKL/DUJ and a lesser extent at
BVI/PIT/AGC. Will continue mention of MVFR cigs at FKL/DUJ but
enough scattering farther south and west should keep predominant VFR
cigs with some periods of BKN high end MVFR. That said, where clouds
clear for longest, some restrictions in fog may develop late.
Confidence in this is low and conditional on the clearing of the
cloud deck, so have opted to maintain the TEMPO groups.

Whatever low stratus/fog does remain should dissipate with sunrise
and give way to another dry day with VFR across the board. A diurnal
cu layer is likely to develop with 4-6kft cloud bases before
scattering out later in the day with high pressure building in from
the Great Lakes. Light north/northeasterly wind around 5 knots will
prevail.

.OUTLOOK...
General VFR is expected into Saturday as high pressure moves east
across the region. A prefrontal trough could result in a few showers
or thunderstorms on Saturday, before higher chances of
showers/storms arrive with a Sunday cold front. Subsequent upper
troughing and cool air aloft could result in patchy cig restrictions
north of PIT Monday and Tuesday along with a few scattered showers.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...88/Lupo
LONG TERM...88/Lupo
AVIATION...MLB