058
FXUS61 KPBZ 070004
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
804 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch was expanded further to SW PA and nrn
WV.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms through this evening

2) Daily shower/thunderstorm chances return later next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was expanded eastward into SW PA
and nrn WV. The latest mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE ranging from
1500-2000 j/kg across SE OH, where the main cluster of storms is
located. Elsewhere, ML CAPE was averaging around 1000 j/kg. Some
development along a surface boundary was seen across northern
Ohio into NW PA, though instability across NW PA has been
gradually diminishing. Expect the main severe weather potential
to continue in the watch area where the best instability and
shear is located. Continue to monitor for another expansion
eastward, though storms should begin to gradually weaken later
this evening as they move east.

The main hazards are expected to be damaging wind and large
hail, though with some veering in the wind profile the potential
for an isolated tornado continues.

The probability of severe storms decreases by 11pm tonight.
There may be training showers and storms that could create
isolated swaths of 1 inch of rain or higher. Urban flooding
would be the main concern given it has been dry for a number of
days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ridging is progged to build back in early next week among all
ensemble guidance with some uncertainty in temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday as the departing trough to the east exhibits
some timing differences as does the orientation and strength of
the building ridge. Lingering troughing could hold temperatures
in the upper 70s while quicker ridging could point to 80s for
the majority of the week. Either way, a return of drier and
warmer weather is anticipated for at least the first half of
next week. Ridging then may break down some and allow for some
summertime-like afternoon showers and storms, though with
surface high pressure in the vicinity, coverage shouldn`t be
widespread or bring a notable severe weather risk. High
temperatures will be highly dependent on coverage of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to track across
the region this evening with a crossing shortwave trough. Most
of this activity should stay south and west of PIT, though some
convection remains possible through around 03Z for PIT. Included
a PROB30 for thunder at PIT, BVI and AGC with some uncertainty
whether these sites will see thunder this evening. Otherwise,
included thunder for most sites from ZZV-HLG and south.

The convection is expected to gradually wane with diminishing
instability late this evening, and as the activity becomes
focused to the south along a surface boundary. After some
partial clearing, expect widespread IFR stratus to develop
overnight, with some fog as well. Conditions should gradually
improve through MVFR to VFR by Sunday afternoon with mixing and
dry advection behind the boundary.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Monday under high pressure. Daily thunderstorm
and restriction chances return Tuesday through Thursday with a
series of crossing shortwave troughs.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM/Hefferan
AVIATION...WM