846
FXUS61 KPBZ 070558
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
158 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected today as low pressure exits to the
northeast. A chance of showers return Thursday before a dry
weather pattern sets up with rising temperature this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Stratiform rain favored south of of I-70, with decreasing
  coverage through the night.
- Cloudy with seasonable temperatures after rain ends.

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Our pesky 500mb low will continue to lift northeast tonight,
arriving in upstate New York by sunrise. Earlier convective
showers to the northeast of Pittsburgh have faded in coverage
and intensity with the loss of instability and more favorable
low-level convergence. These will depart the DuBois area soon,
which will also end any threat of lightning for the night.

Meanwhile, left entrance region jet dynamics and wraparound
moisture continue to support an area of light to occasionally
moderate rain to the south of Pittsburgh. This rain will
continue to sink ESE before pivoting to more of an ENE direction
overnight. The western edge will make steady progress tonight,
and only sparse rain coverage is forecast in the ridges by
Wednesday morning. Additional rainfall from this will mostly
fall into the quarter to half inch range near and south of I-70,
with lesser amounts to the north. After rain ends, low-level moisture
and a developing inversion will keep plenty of low clouds
around. With the clouds and ongoing mixing, overnight low
temperatures will only be a few degrees below their current
values, with slightly above seasonal values in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry for most of the area on Wednesday
- Cold front returns showers for Thursday

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Lingering moisture along the foothills southeast of Pittsburgh
combined with weak NW upslope flow could allow for lingering
light rain showers in the higher terrain Wednesday
morning/afternoon. Otherwise, as the upper trough becomes
further displaced to the northeast, drier flow and surface high
pressure should foster dry weather conditions and more
seasonable temperature for the region Wednesday.

An weak uptick in moist, southwest flow will develop Thursday
in response to a trough that begins to dig south toward the
Upper Ohio River Valley. Along with cold advection behind the
boundary, the front plus positively titled upper trough should
induce enough lift for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Ensembles favor
the southeast 2/3rds of the forecast region for having the ideal
timing of heating, sfc front timing, and upper jet placement
for convection. Weak shear and instability will ensure a little
to no hazard impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry for most areas Friday
- Dry and warmer for the weekend into early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles are coming into closer agreement that Thursday`s
trough will deepen/closer near the PA/NY border but NOT phase
with a saggy southern trough feature shifting east from the Four
Corners region. This should ensure that the trough axis doesn`t
drop farther southeast but rather slowly spin over the northeast
CONUS through Saturday before heading out to the Atlantic. Based
on the angle of the trough axis, the forecast region will be
favored for dry but initially seasonably cool weather. There
would be low probability chances for periodic rain showers along
the higher terrain, but any accumulations would be light and
duration limited.

The aforementioned southern trough would remain cutoff from the
greater northern stream flow and is likely to sit over the Gulf
States into early next week. This region would experience height
rises and surface ridging that allows for dry weather and area
temperature rising above normal by Monday. Rain chances are not
likely to return until the Gulf Low lifts northward midweek in
response to a deeper West Coast trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cig restrictions should persist overnight as an upper low fills
and transitions northeast. VFR conditions should be in place by
midday. Winds will shift to the west during the afternoon with
intermittent gusts up to around 20kts.

Outlook...
Restriction potential increases again on Thursday as
an upper trough approaches the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley/Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...88