180
FXUS61 KPBZ 142354
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
754 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A Flood Watch has been issued for excessive rainfall along the
ridges of Pennsylvania and West Virginia today with additional
showers and storms this afternoon and evening. There is the
potential for severe weather late this week ahead of a passing
warm and cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon/evening
- Flood Watch in effect through 10pm tonight for Preston,
  Tucker, Westmoreland, and Fayette County for potentially slow
  moving storms; 1-2 inches possible in isolated areas
- Fog expected after midnight

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4PM Update:

Showers and storms are currently ongoing south of
Pittsburgh this evening with a passing trough. Heavy rain will With
1-2 inches of rain over the last 24 hours in Fayette,
Westmoreland, Preston, and Tucker County, a Flood Watch has been
issued through 10pm; some areas could receive 1-2 inches of
rain if storms train. Note, PWATs still remain above average at
1.25 to 1.50 inches, which is unseasonably moist for this time
of year. Damaging wind gusts are unlikely with DCAPE value
trending below 300J/kg. Lightning and heavy rain will be the
main threat.

Probability of heavy rain and thunderstorms decrease after
10pm. However, there is a potential for fog with rich low-level
moisture and light winds. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed
for the overnight time period if visibility decreases to a
quarter of a mile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly quiet weather for a large portion of the day on
  Thursday
- Passing warm front early Friday morning is expected to trigger
  severe storms

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A building ridge over the Ohio River Valley will push
temperatures into the 80s Thursday afternoon. Probability of 80
to 83 degrees is elevated (above 60%) under high resolution
model guidance across a large portion of the region, mostly
south of I-80. With a noted warm nose (cap) between 900mb to
750mb, showers and storms will likely be scarce. If storms do
evolve, it would likely be from a remnant mesoscale convection
system (MCS) that potentially develops in southern
Indiana/northern Kentucky late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

The potential for severe weather increases early Friday morning,
between midnight and 5am, with a passing warm front. All threats
are on the table with noted dry air above 700mb to prompt strong
downdrafts and large hail. Effective low-level shear near 30kts
and a curved hodograph may also promote rotating updrafts for
tornadoes. The severe threat may turn into a heavy rain threat
with PWATs near 1.50 inches. Between 8am to 11am the threat of
storms is expected to decrease as the ridge rebuilds to our
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Additional severe storms expected with a crossing cold front
- Cooler pattern returns Sunday into Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The entire Ohio River Valley will continue to remain moist and
warm in the wake of the warm front early Saturday morning. A
closed upper-level low will remain situated in the vicinity of
the Midwest/Great Lakes region. The NBM is struggling with the
position of the cold front early Saturday morning, models that
are trending faster have the front positioned in eastern Ohio
while slower runs still have it near Chicago region early
Saturday. At the moment, pre-frontal storms are expected to
initiate between midnight and 8am Saturday. However, the timing
of the front may differ 4 to 6 hours.

Model soundings early Saturday morning once again depict all
hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) are
possible. However, at the moment the Storm Prediction Center has
a "Marginal" risk (1/5) for our entire region. As we get closer
to this time period adjustments will likely be needed.

The passage of the cold front Saturday will trigger a dry and
cool pattern Sunday into Tuesday with a trough and northwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are lifting north along the
eastern flank of a shortwave trough, which will lift through and
north of the Upper Ohio Valley through tomorrow. Expect much of
the lingering precipitation to fade with the loss of heating,
although a few showers may linger past midnight (covered by
VCSH).

Some clearing later tonight and lingering low-level moisture may
produce some patchy MVFR to IFR fog. Hit MGW and LBE with IFR in
particular. With continued S/SE flow, the HREF favored DUJ for
IFR ceilings (70% chance) while other sites are 50% or less.
Included MVFR at FKL as well. By 13/14Z, the slow onset of
mixing should return most sites to VFR, save for DUJ, where
southeast flow may keep MVFR ceilings into afternoon. For now,
have handled potential afternoon redevelopment as VCSH, as
thunder may be held in check initially by warm air in the mid-
levels.

Outlook...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely late Thursday night into
Friday morning, and again Friday afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms could be severe. Additional showers are possible
with a Saturday cold front. Mainly dry weather and VFR returns
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ073>076.
OH...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...CL/WM