689
FXUS61 KPBZ 210558
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
158 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime temperatures will again be near normal today before
gradually increasing to the upper 80s by Saturday. Precipitation
chances will begin to increase this weekend as low pressure
advances out of the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Largely dry conditions today.

---------------------------------------------------------------

After a relatively warm start today thanks to persistent cloud
cover blanketing the region, temperatures will rise to near
normal values based off latest 500mb heights and
thickness values . Both the HREF and NBM ensembles show sub 10%
hourly PoPs over the course of the day.

With Hurricane Erin to our east and high pressure to the west,
sfc winds will be out of the northeast, veering more easterly by
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues with temperatures slightly higher
  (mid-80s) on Friday.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry conditions will continue Friday with a warming trend in
temperatures as heights slightly increase across the region.
Flow will continue to be relatively light with an easterly
component.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures briefly return Saturday.
- Precipitation chances return Saturday into Sunday with a passing
cold front.
- Cooler weather during first half of next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

An approaching cold front and associated upper-level trough
will increase chances of precipitation through Saturday through Sunday.
Overall, rainfall accumulation totals remain relatively low
with the chance for > 0.25" is 30%-40% for areas east of
Pittsburgh and less than 25% chance to the west.

Generally high confidence exists in a persistent eastern CONUS
troughing by early next week. This should keep temperatures below
average through the first half of next week. By Tuesday, there is a
forecast northwesterly flow. With the warm lake waters ( 20C [68F]
or warmer) and cooler 850mb temperatures (5-8C [41-46F]), there is a
chance that lake-effect rain showers could pop-up Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread MVFR stratus continues early this morning with
lingering low-level moisture under a strengthening inversion.
Cigs will eventually lower to IFR for most terminals overnight.
Low cigs will slowly lift through the morning, with VFR
returning by mid to late afternoon.

A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon, primarily
across the ridges as the inverted surface trough remains over
the area. Wind remains light and northeasterly through the
period.

Outlook...
Patchy fog is possible Friday morning with low level moisture in
place. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected through early Saturday
as high pressure builds across the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase later Saturday into Sunday
evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR is
expected to return Monday behind the front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88/Lupo
AVIATION...WM/Rackley