Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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915
FNUS73 KPAH 272118
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Pennant Bar Rx...Shawnee NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
318 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mixing heights will built to around 3400 ft in the afternoon with
southwest winds becoming gusty. This should lead to good smoke
dispersion conditions. RH values will fall into the mid 30% range
by the afternoon. Good dispersion conditions are also forecast
for Saturday.


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 66.
RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds southwest at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 7 to 15
                    mph with gusts to around 30 mph increasing to
                    15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 17 mph increasing to 23 to 31
                    mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then increasing to 26 to 33 mph late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to around 22 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /99700 knot-ft/.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  50  55  59  63  64  65  66  65  64
RH..............67  52  45  42  36  37  37  34  37  38
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   10  13  15  17  18  20  18  17  15
20 FT wind gust.17  23  26  30  32  33  33  35  33  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.4 1.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  17  23  26  30  31  33  33  26  22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7   14  32  51  70  84  97  100 54  24
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph shifting to the northwest after 3
                    am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 13 to 17 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  58  56  54  52  50  48  47  45  44  42  40
RH..............42  49  53  54  56  58  60  63  65  65  67  70
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.25  23  21  17  18  17  18  17  16  15  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.21  17  15  15  13  13  13  13  14  15  16  17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15  11  8   7   6   6   6   6   7   8   10  13
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 47.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  39  40  41  42  44  45  46  47  47  46  44
RH..............76  70  64  59  55  51  47  43  40  38  40  41
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.14  16  17  18  18  18  18  18  18  17  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.3 3.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  20  21  22  21  20  18  18  18  17  16  14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  30  44  56  63  66  67  75  81  78  59  36
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR

$$
Forecaster...GIBBS
Requested by...Tyson Taylor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2504253.0/PAH
.DELDT 02/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyson.taylor@usda.gov