044
FNUS73 KPAH 051358
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Shut In Mountain Fen...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Paducah KY
758 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on November 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Providing a refreshed forecast based on the latest forecast data.

Skies will be sunny with RH values around 55% at ignition time,
falling to around 40-45% this afternoon. A frontal passage will
bring a shift in transport winds from W to NW during the late
morning to early afternoon hours, generally at 10-15 mph. Mixing
heights will be around 2000ft at ignition time, reaching 3400 ft
this afternoon. Winds at 20ft will be light from the W to NW,
around 5-10 mph. Combined with limited mixing, forecast smoke
dispersion conditions will be poor.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 16 mph shifting to the north 9
                    to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /27900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...poor
                    /37800 knot-ft/.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  69  72  73  73  72  69  65
RH..............54  51  46  46  44  46  49  56
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.18  16  14  13  13  13  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 0.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  16  14  13  13  13  12  9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28  38  36  35  37  36  27  7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 10 mph shifting to the east 9 to
                    12 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  57  54  52  51  49  48  46  46  44  43  43
RH..............67  72  77  80  80  80  80  83  79  82  82  82
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.13  12  12  12  12  10  10  10  10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  9   10  10  9   10  10  9   9   9   12  12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon, then becoming light late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph shifting to the south 12 to 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  42  44  50  56  61  63  66  67  67  65  63
RH..............86  86  86  71  59  51  52  48  50  52  58  62
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.12  13  14  15  15  15  15  15  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  14  15  14  14  14  13  13  14  13  12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   6   12  18  20  27  28  29  32  32  24  13
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...SNYDER
Requested by...Ryan Patrick Gauger
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525142.0/PAH
.DELDT 11/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rgauger@tnc.org