294
FNUS73 KPAH 201653
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Brown Barrens Burn...IDNR
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1053 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dispersion today will be excellent with west to northwest winds
gusting to near 30 mph. Humidity will drop into the 25-30% range
this afternoon with mixing heights up to 8000 feet.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 57.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 10 to 15 mph
                    with gusts to around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph shifting to the west 31
                    to 32 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 20 to 21 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /42500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...very
                    good /102500 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent
                    (187100 knot-ft) early in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to poor (18300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  54  55  56  57  56  55  55  51
RH..............55  50  43  35  30  29  30  30  34
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  13  14  14  15  15  15  14  12
20 FT wind gust.22  23  24  26  28  28  28  26  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.4 4.9 7.4 8.1 7.9 6.9 2.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  21  24  30  32  31  31  21  20
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..43  62  103 193 226 213 187 38  18
Ventrate Cat....FR  GD  VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  44  43  41  41  40  40  39  39  38  37  37
RH..............42  49  51  55  55  57  57  57  57  59  56  54
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.21  18  17  17  17  16  16  16  17  18  20  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  18  16  15  16  15  15  16  16  16  17  20
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   9   7   7   7   7   7   7   9   10  10  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 46.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 21 mph increasing to 25 to 33
                    mph early in the morning, then decreasing to
                    around 22 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (116300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to poor (30400 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to very good
                    (126400 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............36     37     41     43     46     45
RH..............56     61     50     47     43     47
20 FT wind dir..W      NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT wind spd..12     16     17     16     16     14
20 FT wind gust.23     26     29     28     28     25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0    4.3    4.3    4.1    3.9    2.8
Transp wind dir.W      NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
Transp wind spd.20     31     32     29     29     25
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17     116    119    102    96     61
Ventrate Cat....POOR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...TREVINO
Requested by...Daniel Brown
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427061.0/PAH
.DELDT 11/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.b.brown@illinois.gov