330
FXUS63 KPAH 111142
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the week.
  Low humidity will result in an elevated fire danger concern
  this afternoon.

- Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms return Wednesday
  night into Thursday.

- Gusty south winds can be expected Friday into Saturday ahead
  of a strong cold front.

- Showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon and
  continue through Friday night into Saturday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday and
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

In keeping with the trends of the last few afternoons, went
about as low as possible for dewpoints today and Wednesday.
Southwest winds will try to bring some increase in dewpoints,
but not nearly as much as the NBM indicates. Using the NBM 10th
percentile and highs a few degrees above the NBM, relative
humidity is likely to drop below 20% over much of the Mark Twain
National Forest, with the rest of the area ranging from 20-30%.
Thankfully winds are not that stout, so we can avoid a fire
headline today. A modest increase in moisture Wednesday will
keep most locations above 30%.

A closed upper low will move eastward just south of the Quad
State Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be some steep
lapse rates aloft associated with it, but they will be
accompanied by a strong inversion. The limited moisture may not
be able to overcome the cap, but we will maintain some healthy
PoPs near the southern border just in case something can get
going. The primary window for some thunderstorms will be from
09Z-15Z Thursday, generally over southeast Missouri into west
Kentucky. With the upper low to the south, wind fields will be
very weak, so severe storms are not expected.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the major storm
system that will impact the Quad State late Friday through
Saturday. Moisture will be very limited once again, as the
primary upper low lifts north northeast away from the Gulf
moisture. This could be one of those events where there is a
significant severe concern with the strong dynamics near the
upper low, and another lesser risk farther south with the better
low-level moisture.

For now, we will expect a heavily forced line/QLCS to develop
quickly over southeast Missouri Friday evening. Meager
instability and extremely strong wind fields will lead to a
definite severe threat, as the line lifts northeast across most
of the Quad State. How far south and west the development
occurs will determine if the entire area will be impacted or
whether some of west Kentucky or even southeast Missouri will
be spared. With such strong winds, it will take very little to
bring down 50kt or better winds, regardless of how strong or
organized the convection is. If the instability can hold up to
the shear, a more organized damaging wind and tornado threat
could develop. The activity will be racing northeast, so QPF
should be around a half inch.

The tail end of the larger-scale upper trough will push eastward
across the region Saturday into Saturday night. This will result
in convective development spreading northeast ahead of the cold
front Saturday afternoon and evening. The location of the cold
front is in doubt, but could keep west Kentucky, and especially
the Pennyrile region in play for thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall. Instability could be much better with over 1000 J/kg
of SBCAPE possible, so even with lesser shear, a severe threat
cannot be ruled out in our southeast Saturday afternoon and
evening.

There is some potential for a few light showers to sweep
eastward across the region Sunday, as the last of the upper
trough passes. We will have some healthy northwest winds Sunday
which will lead to cooler temperature, but they will still be
close to normal levels in the 50s.

Next week will begin with ridging aloft and south winds at the
surface. This will lead to nice warming trend through next
Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected, so we could go right back
to the elevated fire risk Monday and especially Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The TAFs are VFR. Southwest winds will gust 15-20kts through
the day. LLWS is expected over the entire region for most of
the night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS