106
FXUS63 KPAH 291942
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through
  Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be
  possible.

- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal
  highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this
afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest.
A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into
the evening hours. PW`s remain very high with values over 2
inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may
continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the
region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across
the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the
region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind
fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any
thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard.
Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.

We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday.
Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper
level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins
to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures
in the upper 80`s early to mid week will rise into the low to
mid 90`s by the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower confidence forecast on timing and coverage of convection
this afternoon. Cloud cover and earlier rain has slowed
destabilization today. Can`t rule out SHRA or maybe isolated
thunder but don`t have more confidence to introduce any higher
probs than prob30 at least for now. AMD may become necessary if
higher confidence develops. Additional isolated shower or storm
activity is possible overnight. A cold front will move in from
the northwest late in the TAF period, most likely after 18z but
could offer scattered showers or storms toward the end of the
TAF period. Winds from the southwest around or less than 5
knots are expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD