998
FXUS63 KPAH 211736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A shot of cold and very dry air will overspread the region by
  Sunday and linger through Monday. Monday will be the coolest
  day with lows in the teens (60-90% chance), wind chills in
  the single digits (70%-90% chance) and highs in the mid to
  upper 30s throughout the region.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with above normal
  temperatures Wednesday through next Saturday.

- Much of the Quad State will see a period or two of sprinkles
  or flurries today. There is only a 20-30% chance of measurable
  precipitation, mainly over west Kentucky early this morning
  and again this afternoon.

- At least light rain is expected throughout the Quad State
  Wednesday night and Thursday. There is only a 20% chance of
  more than a half inch, mainly over west Kentucky.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A band of light rain with perhaps a tenth of an inch or more has
developed from the Bootheel through southern portions of west
Kentucky early this morning. Guidance is thoroughly unaware of
this development with the exception of the latest HRRR, which
has it dissipating/moving east of the area by daybreak.

A somewhat complex upper trough will approach the Quad State
today and move overhead tonight. As it approaches, there is a
10-30% chance of measurable precipitation across the region,
with the best chance in west Kentucky this afternoon. Most of
the region will experience a few periods of sprinkles or
flurries. Temperatures will remain above freezing throughout the
area, but this morning it will be cool enough for flurries to
potentially reach the ground over the northwest half of the
region.

As tonight`s upper trough passes east of the area, surface high
pressure will surge through the region. The 00Z ECEPS indicates
a near certainty of at least 30 mph gusts throughout the Quad
State during the day Sunday. The chance of 40 mph gusts was nil,
so no Wind Advisory is anticipated.

The strong northwest winds will usher in much colder and very
dry air. The 00Z ensembles indicate that there is a 10-20%
chance of wind chills dropping below 10F in the Mt Vernon IL
area by daybreak Sunday. Wind chills Monday morning will be
dangerously cold with a near certainty of readings in the single
digits over the northern half of the Quad State. Over the
southern half the chance is 70-80%. There are similar chances of
low temperatures dropping below 20F Monday morning. It will be
quite cold for those waiting on busses. Highs on Monday will
span the 30s with only the Ozark Foothills reaching above 35F.

The flow aloft will finally relax on Tuesday, allowing strong
southwest winds to develop throughout the region. This will
result in a nice warming trend, but highs on Tuesday are still
likely to remain a few degrees below normal. Of greater concern
on Tuesday is the potential for near Red Flag criteria for winds
and relative humidity. For now the NBM and 00Z ensembles keep
winds more in the 10-15mph range, and minimum relative humidity
in the 30-35% range. It will not be shocking to see the wind
forecast trend up and RH down with time.

Temperatures and moisture will increase for Wednesday, when the
NBM has high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the Tri
State area to the middle 60s in the Ozark Foothills.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be somewhat lower, but
still above normal.

There is agreement amongst the 00Z ensemble guidance that the
entire Quad State will get wet in the Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening time frame. What is not agreed upon at
this time is when within that period it will rain and how much?
The overwhelming trend, though, is for the greatest chances and
amounts to be over west Kentucky, and the least chances and
amounts to be over northwest portions of the Quad State. The
ECEPS has the best chance of more than a half inch of rain at up
to 40% near the TN border in west Kentucky. Overall, the AI
version of the ensembles indicate lesser chances of rainfall,
especially over the northwest. The ECMWF seems to be in favor
with its Wednesday night into Thursday morning timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A mid level stratus deck continues to advance from the southwest
this afternoon. This deck will then move off to the southeast
this evening and will lead to clear skies overnight. Tomorrow a
low, just above MVFR, cloud deck will edge in from the northwest
at MVN, EVV, and OWB.

Winds will be gusty out of the north today at 15-20 kts this
afternoon. Winds will relax slightly overnight before picking
back up closer to morning and through tomorrow morning. Expect
gusts tomorrow to be 20-30 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...HICKFORD