028
FXUS63 KPAH 160738
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue with widespread highs
  in the lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
  afternoon hours, will be 30% to 60% across the entire area
  Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, higher chances of 40% to 70%
  will be east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20%
  in the Ozark Foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With broad high pressure ridging remaining across most of the
country, a meandering Mid-South low pressure system will
continue to provide daily shower and thunderstorm chances.
Following yesterday`s rainfall, a few spots, especially in
climatologically favored spots, can see some drops in visibility
early this morning. With the low pressure drifting northward,
the entire Quad State will see scattered showers and storms this
afternoon. A front across the midwest drifts near the
northeastern edge of the CWA Friday as a shortwave trough moves
through Friday evening, focusing precip chances Friday near the
Evansville Tri-State. Precip chances again focus in the east
Saturday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Each of
these days, the best chances for storms will be in the afternoon
with peak heating and good CAPE values. However, shear will
continue to be lacking, and the resulting pulse convection is
unlikely to produce any severe weather, though some gusty
(generally sub-severe) downdrafts are possible. Precipitable
water values above 2 inches will allow for locally heavy rain,
but a lack of training storms should keep flooding issues mostly
out of the picture (perhaps an advisory level nuisance flood or
two).

While a brief wind shift is possible Saturday night, winds
Sunday bring in air from the Southern Plains and keep
temperatures warm. Highs in the lower 90s are possible each day
Saturday through Tuesday. Heat indices in the lower triple
digits are likely Saturday and can linger at least in parts of
the CWA through early week depending on how well we retain
moisture as dry weather moves in for Monday. Ridging focuses in
the Central/Southern Plains early next week but a cold front
trailing off a Canadian system could drop highs to the 80s on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Primary concern overnight will be fog development, particularly
across southeast MO and far southern IL where the heaviest rain
fell today. IFR or lower cloud bases may also develop for a
short period early morning, particularly around KCGI and KPAH.
Additional scattered showers and storms are likely to develop by
midday through the afternoon on Thursday, and this time could
impact the northeastern terminals as well. Brief MVFR conditions
are possible with any convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP