818
FXUS63 KPAH 222311
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
611 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  this weekend into early next week. Heavy rainfall is the main
  concern with between 1 to 3 inches expected by Monday evening.
  The highest amounts will be across southeast Missouri where
  localized flooding is possible.

- The potential for strong to severe storms this weekend into
  early next week does not look terribly concerning at this
  time, with the risk focused more south into Arkansas.

- High temperatures will be 10 degrees below normal this weekend
  in the mid 60s to low 70s, gradually trending warmer by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A 500 mb longwave trough and a sfc ridge of high pressure will allow
for unseasonably cool and dry weather conditions to prevail through
the end of the week. Upper level height rises this weekend then
allow for multiple impulse to round a ridge located over the Gulf
coast that will bring a prolong period of unsettled weather Saturday
through at least Monday. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will
be probable during this time period with the greatest concern being
the potential for heavy rainfall.

While model ensembles have shifted a bit SSW with the QPF axis, the
overall consensus still remains 1 to 3 inches of total rainfall by
Monday evening. Did consider a Flood Watch for southeast Missouri
where the heaviest amounts are progged; however, 3 hr FFG between 2
to 3 inches should help to keep any flooding issues very localized
at most given the lack of convection. SPC does have a small portion
of SEMO under a marginal risk for severe weather in their D3
outlook. Instability does not look terribly concerning, especially
with the SSW shift in the MCS track down into Arkansas where more
robust mixing ratios will remain with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees.
Overall, heavy rainfall remains the main concern over a 3 day period
with low confidence in any severe weather potential at this time.

High temperatures over the weekend will be running 10 degrees below
normal ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s before eventually
trending warmer into the low to mid 70s by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are forecast tonight through tomorrow with gusty
northwest winds becoming lighter overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG