574
FXUS63 KPAH 050540
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread
  southeast across the entire region, with 80-100% chances
  realized by this afternoon-evening.

- There is a small risk (15% or less) of storms becoming
  strong/severe this afternoon or evening, but best severe
  chances look to shift to our south.

- Storm rainfall forecast totals average 1 to 2.33 inches, but
  localized higher amounts cannot be ruled out. For areas that
  receive greater than 2 inches rainfall, there is a WPC MRGL
  risk for potential flooding issues; however mostly the impacts
  of expected rainfall will be to help our continued overall
  drought conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

All eyes turn to a cold front that will approach/make passage
today-tonight. With moisture increasing today upon the front`s
approach, we should see clouds increase, lower, and thicken as
it nears. The front will provide the necessary convergence/trigger
to help realize our categorical pops, as indicated by
time/height cross sections saturating the column down over the
back half of the day/into the night. The models retard overall
instability (esp surface-based) as a result, but the front is
coming in during the peak heating afternoon/evening hours, so
we`ll have to monitor that closely as otherwise challenged
lapse rates and poor instability may be overcome by the synoptic
lift of the front and the waves that the models ride along it
into the night-time upon its forthcoming passage. Increasing
shear associated with the parent system would yield some
MRGL/perhaps SLGT risk svr as indicated by SPC`s outlook, but we
are not necessarily bullish on the chances given the negating
instability parameters and channelled flow setup.

Other than the strong/svr storm storm potential, overall qpf
provided by a good soaking rain may yield a MRGL (WPC) risk of
flooding should storms repeat or over-perform from the storm
total average QPF expectations of generally 1 inch to perhaps as
much as 2 and a third inches, localized totals potentially
higher.

As a result of the clouds/pcpn, temps will stay largely in the
60s today, well below yesterday`s 80s. This will herald a start
week cool period where we have highs in the 60s daily thru
Wednesday, before a late week warmup commences. Similar to the
highs, lows too will fall back to cooler than seasonal 40s for
as many nights.

Friday night leading into the weekend brings another (small)
chance of pcpn, before a more robust system brings better
chances to the region as a whole late in the weekend leading
into early next week. Between the two systems, temps try to
bounce back to near or even above seasonal with 70s and 50s
again, with some potential of reaching 80F for highs along and
nearer our southern border this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Expect two rounds of thunderstorms that will buttress
widespread light to moderate rain showers after 11-16z. The
first round of thunder will be between mainly in the daylight
morning hours, but coverage looks to be low enough for only
PROB30 groups as a stationary boundary moves south into the
area. The second round of thunder looks more pronounced and will
be between 20-04z, where periods of VCTS are now included.
Between these, cigs will fall to IFR with MVFR or IFR vsby
restrictions. Winds will be steady from the S to SW around 6-12
kts until late afternoon, when they will become N to NE as the
frontal boundary shifts south of the area along with continued
light rain showers.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$