965
FXUS63 KPAH 231116
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend with mostly dry
  conditions.

- Below normal temperatures much of next week with continued
  dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Water vapor and upper-air analysis this morning shows an upper
low and trough from Ontario south into the northern plains, with
a surface front extending across the Great Lakes and Midwest.
Conditions are currently quiet under clear skies with
temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Light winds and low dewpoint
depressions will allow for patchy fog to continue to develop
early this morning, with a few observations already seeing fog.

Today, the upper trough shifts east across the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley, pushing a surface front into the region late
this evening and overnight. Convergence and moisture along the
front looks pretty weak although this combined with modest lift
may support an isolated shower or two mainly near the I-64
corridor this evening. High temperatures will likely be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday given deeper mixing with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Behind the front, deep troughing across the eastern CONUS will
place the region in northwest flow aloft through midweek. A
drier and cooler airmass will filter in, with highs Sunday in
the low to mid-80s, then cooling further to the mid-70s to near
80 Monday through Wednesday. The dry airmass in place will
allow for strong radiational cooling conditions with lows
dipping into the 50s through mid week with some upper 40s
possible in isolated locations Tuesday night. Dry weather will
persist through much of next week due to surface high pressure
in place, with only slight chances of rain appearing next Friday
when guidance suggests a shortwave moving through the region
from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Morning fog will clear out over the next hour. VFR will prevail
today within a high pressure dominated forecast, with sct to
bkn bases around 5 kft. Additional high level clouds will stream
through this evening and overnight as a front begins to move
through the region. Winds will remain from the north today
around 5-10 kts becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD