998
FXUS63 KPAH 050843
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
243 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off rain can be expected today, with more widespread
  rain tonight through Thursday evening, accompanied by some
  thunderstorms mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.

- More rain will spread across the region late Friday into
  Friday night, continuing through Saturday night, and for
  southern areas, into Sunday night. A few thunderstorms will
  be possible mainly Saturday morning and Saturday evening.

- Much colder, more seasonable air will arrive late in the
  weekend and persist into next week.

- Good chances of rain and/or snow return Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Low pressure over the Central Plains will be lifting a boundary
northward toward our area today, with the boundary draped east
to west across the PAH forecast area tonight. We will see on and
rain today.  Rain will become more widespread tonight and
Thursday as the surface low moves along the boundary through
our area, and this will also give us chances of some
thunderstorms. Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast
late Thursday into Thursday evening as the low pushes off to our
east and pushes the boundary back south of our forecast area.
Rainfall totals will range from around a quarter inch in our
west and northwest counties, to near an inch in the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. The boundary bisecting our area will
result in a sharp north to south temperature gradient. Highs
today will range from the lower 40s north to near 60 degrees
south, lows tonight will be near 40 degrees north to the middle
50s south, highs Thursday will range from the middle 50s north
to near 70 degrees south, with lows Thursday night from near 30
degrees north to near 40 degrees south.

Another area of low pressure will develop over the Central
Plains Friday, and that will help that pesky boundary to our
south start to lift back north late Friday into Friday night.
Temperatures Friday will be closer to season normals, but we
will see a quick warm up for Friday night and Saturday to
significantly above normal. Rain chances will increase late
Friday into Friday evening, with chances at 50-70% by late
Friday night. The highest chances will become focused across
southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky by
Saturday morning mainly along and north of the front. Models
show the surface low moving through the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio valleys Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and
this will bring the chances of a few thunderstorms. Rain
chances will again taper off from northwest to southeast
Saturday night as the low pushes east, but with the boundary
now lingering just to our south,this will linger chances of
light rain across our southern half of counties into Sunday and
Sunday night. Also, this low will be followed by much colder air
than our previous system, so after seeing Saturday high
temperatures from around 60 degrees north to the lower 70s
south, highs Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 40s.
With lows Sunday night in the middle 20s to lower 30s, northern
fringes of any precipitation could see a little snow mixing in
with the rain.

The boundary to our south will again bring increasing
precipitation chances early next week, but models show our
region now staying on the cold side of this boundary, combining
with the colder air already in place. The current model blend
shows rain and rain/snow chances spreading north Monday, with
high chances across our region by Monday night into Tuesday,
with the best chances across west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri. Precipitation would be primarily snow across our
northern counties Monday night, with more of a rain/snow mix
across our south. Where the boundary sets up and just how cold
our temperatures will be (current forecast lows Monday night in
the upper 20s north to lower 30s south) will have a big impact
on any potential snow accumulations. For now this time period is
lower confidence, and we will see where the various model
solutions take us over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

MVFR ceilings early in the TAF period will give way to IFR
ceilings during the day Wednesday and possible LIFR Wednesday
evening. Visibilities will likely be reduced as well with rain
expected at each TAF site and a sharp low-level inversion in
place. LLWS will likely develop toward the end of this TAF
issuance; however, it may be just beyond 06Z Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...KC