314
FXUS63 KPAH 012131
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
431 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Surface high pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and
  humidity levels to the entire Quad State through the weekend.

- Increased humidity and daily chances of showers and
  thunderstorms will return to the region Monday through
  Wednesday.

- Temperatures will finally climb back to near normal Thursday
  and will climb back into the lower 90s next Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Surface high pressure is still in the process of scouring out
the last of the 70 degree dewpoints from the far southern
portions of west Kentucky this afternoon. However, dewpoints
have already dropped into the 50s along I-64. Saturday will be
the pick day of the weekend, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees
below normal, and lower humidity.

Upper-level energy will carve out a weak trough over Missouri by
Monday, and it will linger in our vicinity through Tuesday. It
will eventually push east of the region Wednesday or Thursday
and that will allow high pressure aloft to build back eastward
over the Quad State. At the surface, a weak inverted surface
trough will move westward across the region Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday, which will usher in lower 70s dewpoints.
Fortunately, winds will maintain a significant easterly
component until Thursday or next Friday, so temperatures will
struggle to trend warmer through the week. The combination of
south winds and high pressure aloft will finally lead to
temperatures climbing back to near or a bit above normal by
Thursday or next Friday.

The increased humidity east of the surface trough will help to
support a chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning over the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky Sunday afternoon. The chances
will spread to near the Mississippi River for Monday afternoon,
and then through the entire region on Tuesday. The chances will
be to the east of the Mississippi River Wednesday, as the upper
trough begins to exit to the east of the region. The best
chances will be in the afternoon each day, but we will maintain
at least small chances through the night with the upper trough
in the vicinity. Shear will continue to be very weak, so
thunderstorm activity will consist of locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and possibly some gusty winds. Thursday and Friday
should be dry throughout the region, as the upper-level ridge
builds overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes will
control the flight weather this package. Loss of diurnal fuel
means lower bases should continue scattering with/thru
nightfall. The arriving drier air advecting from the surface
high rules fog out of the forecast, with diurnal bases coming
into play again tmrw, probably in FEW (north) to SCT (south)
fashion, mainly during the planning phase hours of the forecast.
It wouldn`t be a shock to see some CIGS, but will play the
other direction for this package given the trend toward drier
air/fewer bases. N-NE circulating flow around the high may pick
up some gusts during the heating hours again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$