182
FXUS63 KPAH 200354
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1054 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible tonight
  through early Sunday. A stray strong to severe storm with
  large hail cannot be ruled out.

- Severe storms will likely move into southeast Missouri early
  Sunday evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
  all be possible. The severe threat will diminish as the
  storms move east of the Mississippi later in the evening.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week, a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms will arrive for the latter half of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

It looks like the main convective threat for the day is about to
exit the Evansville Tri State. Model soundings show a healthy
capping inversion that will make it difficult to realize any
surface-based convection until the cold front arrives Sunday
evening. As we have seen all day, strong southwest flow aloft
will continue to provide a steady supply of steep mid-level
lapse rates that could support a hail threat with any elevated
convection that can develop through early Sunday morning. So we
cannot completely give up on the potential for a few severe
storms this evening through early Sunday, mainly over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois.

The surface boundary will lift back north of the area Sunday
morning, paving the way for a warm and dry Easter, after some
isolated to scattered morning storms, mainly over the northern
half of the region. The cap will be in place and there is little
sign of any warm-sector convection developing ahead of the main
line near the cold front Sunday evening. In fact, there is
ample evidence that we will mix fairly deeply and could see
temperatures climb into the middle 80s. This will likely lead to
dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s over much of the Quad
State in the afternoon, which will help limit instability ahead
of the cold front, especially east of the Mississippi.

12Z NAM soundings near Van Buren Missouri at 00Z showed very
impressive wind fields with plenty of instability to support
dangerous severe storms. It had effective SRH over 500m2/s2 and
an effective layer STP over 5! That would support some higher
end severe storms, but SPC is not quite going there, yet, for
their enhanced risk area, which is just west of our southeast
Missouri counties.

We should see a band of severe storms push eastward into
southeast Missouri around 6 or 7 PM and then rapidly decrease in
intensity as it pushes toward the Mississippi later in the
evening. The severe threat should mainly be across southeast
Missouri in the 6-9PM time frame. All severe modes will be in
play initially, with a transition to more of a damaging wind
threat as it quickly outruns the better shear and instability.

Most areas will see less than an inch of rain through the
remainder of the weekend, but the Ozark Foothills could see 1-2
inches, which could result in isolated, brief flash flooding
issues.

A few showers may linger into Monday morning in the southern
Pennyrile, but in general, Monday and Tuesday will be dry. Weak
disturbances in a relatively weak west southwest flow aloft
through next week will lead to some potential for more showers
and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and continuing into next
weekend. Confidence in the timing details is fairly low at this
time, but there is no sign of any major weather-makers late
next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A mix of MVFR/VFR can be expected rest of the night. A warm
front will lift north early Sunday and may provide chances of
rain or storms across the western terminals. A lull develops for
the rest of Sunday with gusty southerly winds developing in the
afternoon. A line of SHRA/TSRA will develop to the west and
move east after 00z. This line should reach MVN/CGI/PAH by the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD