268
FXUS63 KPAH 171710
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat indices into the triple digits begins almost
  daily again by this weekend but particularly for the new week
  coming as the heat will only build and get hotter and
  stickier as the week wears on.

- Daily storm chances peak this weekend, with marginally severe
  storms and their potential for localized flooding rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A frontal boundary stalled along our northwest county warning
area periphery will help focus showers/storms that develop
during the afternoon swell of heat and humidity. PW`s hovering
around 2" means locally heavy donwpours will continue to be
a primary hazard, so localized flooding cannot be ruled out,
particularly if a storm stays over one area long enough or
repeats over the same areas. This is to say that it is probably
not enough to warrant a full-area Flood Watch, but nonetheless,
isolated reports of localized flooding are possible. Overall
shear is not particularly impressive, but the soundings do
suggest a stronger downdraft potential may allow for a marginal
risk of a strong/severe thunderstorm gust, should one collapse
just right.

It appears pops peak daily in the afternoon/evening with peak
heating, and they`ll likewise peak this weekend when the
boundary is in play and there is at least some positive
differential vorticity advection noted within the streamlines of
the upper flow overtop the PAH FA. This occurs in synchronicity
with the wobble down of the boundary as a couple pieces of what
look to be more organized waves of energy move across the
Wabash and Ohio River Valleys. We think most of that action
occurs Saturday so won`t be surprised to see that day be the
better day of play for storms vs Sunday, when the atmosphere may
be in somewhat of a recovery mode with building heights. Once
that does hit (building heights), which is definitely by early
next week, then it just ramps up in earnest with daily heat
indices swelling into headline category much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Diurnal bases may include vicinity thunder/cb and if a storms
impacts the terminal then all restrictions are in play. This
will be brief/short-lived however, probably mainly confined to
the heat of the afternoon-evening hours. Otherwise anticipate
SCT-BKN mainly VFR bases with notable exceptions for storms
and/or late night patchy fog or low cloud that may develop in
the sticky predawn environ.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ081>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$