514
FXUS63 KPAH 171228
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
728 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today with seasonable temperatures.

- Chances of showers and storms return late tonight and continue
  into early next week with severe weather potential especially
  on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Radar is much quieter this morning as a front moves into the
region with much drier air filtering in. The front will
continue to push to the southeast today with increasing heights
aloft. This results in some much needed drier weather with near
seasonable temperatures. A weak upper level disturbance ejects
across the plains late Saturday night into Sunday which lifts a
warm front north through the area. Showers and storms are likely
to develop across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
Saturday night and push northeast likely weakening as it out
paces any remaining instability.

Upper trough will dig into the central plains on Sunday with an
area of low pressure. A front will extend eastward across the
region and may be a focus for additional showers and storms
Sunday mainly across southeast Missouri. The parent trough will
remain across the plains early this week with stronger mid level
flow rounding the base of this trough Monday into Tuesday
increasing large scale lift as a warm front pushes north.
Increasing instability is expected as strong mid level lapse
rates overspreads a rich boundary layer and presents strong to
severe storm chances both days. Tuesday at this time looks more
intriguing for severe chances as a surface low moves across
Missouri into Illinois Tuesday afternoon with decent overlap of
strong instability and bulk shear of 50-60 kts.

Behind this system a dominant upper low becomes established
across the Great Lakes. A mid level shortwave will dive into the
Ohio Valley Wednesday providing additional chances of showers
across the region. We see a break Thursday and Friday as
surface high pressure develops and ridging develops aloft with
only a slight chance of a shower at best on Thursday. Cooler
temperatures can be expected toward mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 726 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR will prevail today and tonight. High level clouds will
stream across the terminals later this afternoon and into
tonight. West winds are expected between 5-12 kts today
decreasing to light and variables tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$