830
FXUS63 KPAH 240150
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
850 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for prolonged
  duration daily peak heat index values in the triple digits.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The H5 ridge is 596-597 DM now and holds strong in the mid 590s
thru mid week, breaking down into the lower 590s by the end of
the week. No other synoptic feature of note detected, there
will be enough buildup of heat/humidity to allow for daily pops
to appear primarily during the heat of the afternoon and early
evening, but any such that develops will offer only a brief,
temporary respite from the triple digit heat indices that
continue with the heat headline thru Friday.

Over the weekend and beyond, there begins to show in the
modeling some heights falling, perhaps enough to break the
triple digit heat indices, perhaps not. There is enough question
there that it precludes us from extending the prolonged duration
headline any more than Friday, at least at this writing; that may
need to be revisited as the week wears on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the 06z TAFs, added PROB30 groups from 18-24z for TS to MVN
and EVV based on latest short term model guidance. Otherwise,
expecting SKC or FEW250 conditions overnight followed by diurnal
CU developing after 14z with bases around 3kft initially, rising
to 5kft after 18z. Light/steady S winds at 3-6 kts overnight
will be come SW around 4-8 kts during the afternoon. Skies will
clear and winds relax after 24z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS