341
FXUS63 KPAH 301731
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures (lower
  to middle 80s) will persist through the holiday weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms return during the mid
  week period.

- A return to a no pops forecast late next week comes with a
  cool-down that will feature highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Low level trajectories from the northeast, circulating around a
cool/dry surface high pressure system, will keep the dry air
funnel working into our area thru the Holiday weekend. Slightly
below normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 80s
and plentiful sunshine remains forecast thru its duration.

The mean long wave trof sharpens and amplifies during the mid
week, with marked height falls driving an open wave of low
pressure embedded within its trof thru first, followed by a more
robust cyclogenesis that drives a cold front thru the area not
long afterward. Isolated to scattered pops will return with
this pattern metamorphosis, but nothing exceptional is noted to
produce more than random variety showers/storms. Despite the
pops returning during the mid week period, the DESI continues to
produce guidance figures mostly in the low chance range for
appreciable areal average pcpn...so not likely to yield much
relief to deteriorating D0/D1 conditions that have onset.

The sharpening/amplifying long wave trof lastly fires a
cyclogenetically produced surface cold front and drives it
across the PAH FA by Wed nite-Thursday. This will pack a hearty
punch of cooler/drier air, so any lingering pops will
effectively be overtaken by this cooler/drier air mass. As a
result, we`re looking at highs in the 70s to finish out the
week. It`s possible another cold front`s passage offers a
reinforcing shot of cold air for next weekend...something to
keep an eye upon for record lows potential as this reinforcing
shot of cooler air arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

SCT mid level bases may temporarily produce CIGS, particularly
diurnally. Afterward, higher cloud blow-off yields SCT-BKN
higher clouds thru the remainder of the forecast. TDD`s stay AOA
4-5F so that should largely overwhelm any widespread fog
chances, relegating them more to site favored anomalies that
occur close to daybreak, if they occur at all.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$