544
FXUS63 KPAH 161123
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
623 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged duration heat and humidity will continue to build
  through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be
  in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values approaching or
  exceeding the triple digits through at least Tuesday. A Heat
  Advisory has been issued for all of the Quad State region
  through Tuesday afternoon.

- The passage of a cold front Wednesday will finally end the
  prolonged duration heat as temperatures fall back toward
  normal levels and daily storm chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Very strong upper-level ridging/high pressure will linger across the
Quad State region into early next week. This will keep thunderstorm
chances limited to only isolated (10-15%) chances during peak
heating each afternoon through Tuesday. High temperatures will be
able to warm to the mid to upper 90s under the dome of high pressure
with heat index values increasing from around 100 degrees this
afternoon to around 105 degrees Sunday through Tuesday. Decided to
go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory beginning this afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. In short...it is going to be hot!

Model guidance continues to show the ridge dampening or breaking
down by Tuesday night through the end of the week as another ridge
begins to build across the western CONUS. A cold front is forecast
to sag south into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will
bring a break in the heat and humidity along with better chances for
more widespread showers and storms. Temperatures for the end of the
week will pull back to the mid and upper 80s. At least a bit of
relief is in sight! Drought conditions will only get worse with the
extreme heat through the beginning of the week with very little
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Good flying conditions can be expected through this TAF
issuance. A brief drop in visibility is possible through 13Z
this morning and again late tonight into early Sunday morning
with some shallow ground fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /8 PM
     EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC