297
FXUS63 KPAH 201739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Heat Advisory remains in effect until early this evening,
  with high temperatures again reaching the middle to upper 90s
  this afternoon.

- A cold front will move through our region late today and
  tonight, allowing much cooler air to gradually filter into our
  region for the beginning of the work week.

- Temperatures by Tuesday into Tuesday night will be near to a
  little below seasonal normals, with these conditions
  persisting the rest of the week and into next weekend.

- 30-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms will spread into
  portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and southeast
  Missouri late tonight, and across the rest of the area by
  Monday afternoon, with 20-30% chances tapering off west to
  east Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

One more day of high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal
can be expected today with highs in the middle to upper 90s. A
cold front will push through the PAH forecast area late today
and tonight, finally ending the prolonged heat wave. Temperatures
tonight and Monday will still be 5 to 15 degrees above normal,
but much cooler air will really filter in by Monday night into
Tuesday. Readings Tuesday through the end of the week and even
into next weekend will be near to a little below normal, with
highs generally in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees, and
lows in the middle 50s to near 60 degrees.

With the cold front will come chances of showers and some
thunderstorms. The latest model blend has trended downward a
little with the overall rain chances and rainfall amounts, which
are now from a few hundredths to near a quarter of an inch.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30-60% chances) will
spread into southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and much of
southeast Missouri Sunday night. Monday morning may be fairly
quiet, but chances crank back up to 30-50% across our entire
region Monday afternoon with the heat of the day. 20-30% chances
will taper off from west to east Monday night, with thunder
potential ending by late evening. Beyond Monday night, dry
conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The TAFs are VFR through 06Z. As surface high pressure builds
southward into and through the region tonight, MVFR or lower
ceilings will spread south across the northern three TAF sites
overnight. IFR ceilings are most likely at KMVN. The ceilings
will gradually lift in the morning and should be VFR by the end
of this forecast except at KMVN. As for convection, forecast coverage
is dwindling, but did throw in a PROB30 for TSRA/SHRA at KMVN
06Z-12Z. The convection could impact KEVV and KOWB in the
morning, but confidence is too low to mention there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DRS