795
FXUS63 KPAH 221114
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
514 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures today will moderate to above normal
  Sunday into Monday. Light rain chances are possible Sunday
  night into Monday.

- A return of cooler than normal temperatures are expected
  starting Tuesday and continuing through the Thanksgiving
  Holiday weekend.

- Travel may be impacted by widespread rain across the region
  Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure across the Plains today will shift east across
our area on Saturday. The pressure gradient won`t be as strong
today, but still enough to produce a chilly 10-15 mph breeze, with
some gusts up around 20 mph. Wind chills begin the day in the upper
20s to around 30 and will jump into the 40s this afternoon. Winds
will be rather light on Saturday with the surface high overhead.
Overall a pretty decent day with highs back into the 50s.

On Sunday, a strong south breeze will develop (gusts of 20-25 mph)
as a surface low moves east from the Central Plains. This will help
temperatures rebound into the 60s. As the low pivots northeast into
Michigan through Monday, a cold front will move across our area. The
best forcing remains further north and moisture return isn`t great
ahead of it. However, we should still squeeze some light rains out
of it on Monday.

A cooler pattern returns beginning Tuesday and appears likely to
last through the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. Highs in the 40s will
be common during the week, and it appears increasingly likely that
even colder conditions may dive into the area by next weekend.

After a dry day on Tuesday, models continue to advertise a system
spreading rain across the region Wednesday into Thanksgiving. QPF
amounts were quite a bit lower on the 00z suite of guidance with the
higher amounts over 1 inch largely south of our cwa. Certainly
wouldn`t put too much stock into that though and the heavier amounts
could easily pivot back northwards. It appears that any frozen
precipitation with this system should stay north of our area.
Afterwards, ensembles are favoring troughing amplifying across the
eastern U.S. which would result in even colder temperatures for the
very end of the month and into the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

MVFR cigs will persist across the region through much of the
day, although some clearing is expected from the southwest this
afternoon. Guidance differs on whether the cigs spread back
southwestward overnight or just stay confined to KEVV/KOWB
areas. Northwest winds will remain elevated today with some
gusts of 15-20 kts, especially at northern terminals, before
becoming light tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP