250
FXUS63 KPAH 111241
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
741 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled conditions will continue through Saturday, with
  chances of showers and storms today from 20% north to 60%
  south, and tonight from 20% west of 60% east. Chances Saturday
  from 30-70% will be mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- Dry conditions will return Saturday night through early
  Tuesday, then chances of showers and storms will slowly
  increase from north to south from late Tuesday through
  Thursday.

- After a brief return of near seasonal temperatures today in
  the 80s, above normal temperatures return for the weekend
  through the middle of next week, with highs Sunday through
  Wednesday mostly in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the
  upper 60s around 70 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A frontal boundary will weaken as it meanders just south of the PAH
forecast area today into tonight.  Models also show an upper level
trof moving over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys
tonight into Saturday.  Unsettled conditions will continue with 20-
60% chances of showers and a few thunderstorms across the region
today, highest chances south, and through tonight, highest
chances east. On Saturday, 30-70% chances of showers and storms
will continue mainly across west Kentucky, southwest Indiana and
southeast Illinois, with the best chances in the afternoon with
peak heating.

An upper level high will move over the south central U.S. Sunday,
becoming centered over the southeastern U.S. by Tuesday. Our
region being under the influence of upper level ridging will
give us dry and warmer than normal conditions Sunday through
early Tuesday. Models show a surface cold front approaching from
the northwest late Tuesday. The front will become oriented west
to east to the north of our region by mid week, and models
differ on just how far south the cold front will move. The
model blend currently produces 20-40% chances of showers and
storms across our northern and western counties Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. Chances gradually spread
south across the entire PAH forecast area, peaking at 50-60%
north to 30-40% south on Thursday.

The coolest temperatures of the next seven days will be today with
highs in the 80s.  Winds become southerly late today into tonight,
and combined with the upper level ridge, temperatures will return to
above normal readings over the weekend through at least the middle
of next week.  Temperatures mid to late next week will be dependent
on just how far south the cold front moves, along with coverage of
clouds and convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 741 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

TAF sites with IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys should improve to
VFR by 16z. VFR conditions will then be predominant through the
TAF period. Winds will variable around 5 kts to calm.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST