344
FXUS63 KPAH 171843
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be above normal Tuesday through Friday,
  followed by a return to seasonable conditions over the
  weekend.

- There is now a marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday.
  Scattered small hail and isolated large hail is the main
  concern with the first round of stronger storms Tuesday
  morning.

- Storms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening will pose a
  greater risk of severe weather. Scattered large hail and an
  isolated tornado is possible in southern Illinois, southwest
  Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile.

- After a lull Wednesday, numerous showers and isolated
  thunderstorms will continue on Thursday and Friday. Total
  rainfall between 1 to 2 inches, locally 3 inches is forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A 500 mb vort max will eject east with sfc low pressure across the
Plains tonight, lifting a warm front at the sfc across the FA.
Initial FGEN associated with WAA has shifted more north,
requiring more time this evening to achieve saturation with a
20-30 degree dewpoint depression. As isentropic lift gradually
increases overnight, the risk of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase. The 12z CAMs including
the HRRR and ARW show a more organized line of elevated
convection moving across northern portions of the FA between
12-16z Tuesday when MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg combined
with mid-level lapse rates between 6.5 to 7.0 C/km are progged.
Scattered small hail and isolated large hail will be the main
concern with sfc-6km shear of 45-55 kts.

The warm front stalls near I-64 Tuesday afternoon, allowing for an
influx of moisture to advect north with dewpoints rising into the
lower 60s in the wake of a cold front. As the 500 mb vort provides
forcing for ascent, model guidance now shows a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon and
evening. Given the potential for MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg to become
more sfc based, SPC has introduced a marginal risk of severe
weather in their D2 outlook across southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile. Very cold air aloft will
yield steepening lapse rates with a low WBZ around 700 mb.
Combined with robust effective bulk shear of 50-60 kts, a few
supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible.
However, strong sfc-1km shear of 30-35 kts and 400-450 m^2/s^2
SRH values combined with pockets of SBCAPE around 500 J/kg will
also support an isolated tornado threat.

A lull in the unsettled weather occurs on Wednesday as a stationary
boundary remains in the vicinity. The boundary then lifts back north
as a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another
round of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. As an
amplified 500 mb shortwave trough moves downstream Thursday night
into Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will persist when
another cold front will begin to approach the FA. It will not
be until Friday night into Saturday when pcpn chances begin to
diminish from west to east as an area of high pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley over the weekend with tranquil weather
conditions. Total rainfall through Friday is progged between 1
to 2 inches, with locally 3 inches possible.

Temperatures will be above normal Tuesday through Friday, trending
back to seasonable behind the cold front by Saturday and Sunday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs ranging from
the upper 60s across southwest Indiana to near 80 in portions of
southeast Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as a warm front moves north
across the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible, with higher confidence of some elevated
convection between 12-16z Tuesday across the northern
terminals. Stronger storms will be capable of producing small
hail along with IFR/MVFR conditions. By late Tuesday morning,
MVFR cigs will arrive from the west at KMVN & KCGI, and will
continue to spread east across the rest of the terminals through
midday. SE winds shift S tonight between 5-10 kts with isolated
gusts near 20 kts Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW