005
FXUS63 KPAH 031930
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of additional thunderstorms will result in
  historically high forecast rainfall amounts, totaling as much
  as one foot in places. Significant and widespread flooding
  will likely develop across the Quad State through Sunday.

- Additional rounds of severe storms are possible this afternoon
  and evening, Friday afternoon and evening, and Friday night
  into Saturday. The most significant threat will be over
  southeast Missouri Friday night.

- Cool/cold and mostly dry conditions are expected for the
  first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The multi-day exceptionally heavy rain and severe weather event
remains forecast for the region through Saturday night.

Through the day today, the surface warm front has remained well
south of the Quad State, with the 2 PM position laying out from
southern Arkansas to south central TN, through eastern KY. While
this southern position has kept our CWA from developing any
surface instability (a good thing), the upper flow continues
from the southwest over this front to the south. The result has
been wave after wave of elevated showers and thunderstorms
throughout the Quad State region. While most of this activity
has been quick moving, producing relatively light amounts, the
more persistent bands of showers and storms have brought some
areas of heavy rainfall, mainly in the southern counties.

Through the afternoon, increasing instability will advect
northeastward from Arkansas, where scattered intense cells are
already forming early this afternoon, many with supercellular
structure. I do not think we`re looking at the same threat,
given the lack of boundary layer instability, however this next
wave of storms will bring a more widespread heavy rain threat
into this evening and overnight. The Flood Watch and some
warnings remain in place, as that threat is ongoing.

Looking at the next 48+ hours, we will evolve from persistent
moisture advection( PWAT values over 1.75") over the surface
front due to a positively tilted upper trof to the west, and
strong upper jet streak to our north, to a more progressive,
highly forced surface low and upper trof passage Saturday night.
The result will be persistent showers and thunderstorms with
excessive rainfall each period through Saturday night. Rainfall
amounts remain forecast to be historically high, and impacts
could be catastrophic in some locations into Sunday. Even the
10% percentile NBM data supports 4-6 inches of rain, which is a
remarkably high statical signal for excessive rain. WPC
continues a moderate to high risk of excessive rain each day
through Saturday night.

Severe weather is less confident tonight into Friday morning,as
the numerous elevated storms and heavy rain continue. However,
Friday afternoon into Saturday evening, stronger winds aloft are
forecast to increase shear values to 50kts or above as the upper
trof to our west begins to evolve from positive tilt to more of
a negatively tilt position. Thus, winds aloft will begin to
strengthen and the surface boundary is expected to lift
northward into KY. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large
hail remain possible along and south of the surface boundary,
with main hail to the north, and locally damaging winds.

Saturday, it`s a bit hard to discern the position of the front
with confidence, as convection may greatly disturb the
environment. however the upper forcing is strong, and a severe
weather threat remains quite possible, especially in southern
areas, which will have greater instability in the boundary
layer.

Looking beyond this pattern, the upper flow will sweep much
colder air into the region for Sunday and early next week. Highs
in the 40s and 50s will bring a little early spring chill to the
air, but the overnight lows may need some eyes on them, as below
freezing temperatures appear possible Monday night and Tuesday
night! It seems like every period of this forecast has some
kind of hazard, be safe out there everyone!!



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

With the main front continuing to waver along and south of the area
into this evening, we`ll continue to have increasing/veering north
to northeasterly sfc winds of 10-20 KTs, as well as waves of
scattered to clusters of higher based showers and thunderstorms well
into the night. Some of these storms will be on the heavy side with
passing bursts of rain at low MVFR to IFR VSBYs and possible
variable wind gusts to at least 50 KTs. After midnight, the front
and a surface low may ripple up to areas east of the Murray area.
This may promote increasing advances of lower CIGs to IFR levels, as
well as ongoing rain with embedded thunder. Rain and fog again to
continue to reduce VSBYs to IFR levels as well into early Friday
morning especially at the Paducah to south Owensboro sites. It
appears to be an IFR Friday morning in the wake of heavy overnight
rains and sfc front trying to retreat northward across the local
county warning area.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ERVIN
AVIATION...12