732
FXUS63 KPAH 242208
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
408 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move through the region Monday, bringing
  light rain showers followed by sharply cold temperatures on
  Tuesday.

- A second system will bring a good chance of rain and chilly
  temperatures for Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving Day.

- A cold wave of well below normal temperatures continues to
  look likely following Thanksgiving into the first few days of
  December.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 404 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

An upper lvl ridge extends from western Ontario south through
the midwest and middle Mississippi Valley. Broad sfc high
pressure was centered across the western Atlantic and the
Florida Peninsula while low pressure is filling across the
central plains. Southerly low level flow is responsible for
warmer temperatures today with afternoon readings in the 60`s at
this time. A weak upper lvl wave is expected to move across the
northern plains and into the Great Lakes on Monday with a
surface cold front moving through the region. Chances of showers
will increase on Monday, especially Monday afternoon in
response to this upper lvl system. QPF will be light, with only
a few hundreths of an inch across most areas to a tenth of an
inch across the Pennyrile. After the front, northwest flow
ushers in a drier and much cooler airmass as high pressure
settles in. Lows Monday night will drop into the 30`s underneath
clearing skies with highs on Tuesday only reaching the mid 40`s
to lower 50`s.

Unsettled weather is still on track to return Wednesday through
Thanksgiving as a southern stream wave develops across the
southern plains and pushes into the region. Overall there is
still some inconsistencies in the overall pattern that is set to
take shape during this time. The GFS/CMC keep a weaker system
in play with generally flat flow aloft and a weak sfc wave
developing across the southern plains, while the EURO is more
amplified in showing an upper lvl shortwave digging into the
Ohio Valley with a deepening low over the region. NBM PoPs begin
to increase Wednesday afternoon and spread north continuing
into Thanksgiving. QPF has decreased slightly with the heaviest
rain totals likely across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana
where a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is
expected. The least amounts are expected across SEMO with a
tenth to two-tenths of an inch. Colder air will be coming in
from the north with a rain/snow mix possible across the I-64
corridor. The most recent guidance has backed off on this
possibility some. If any snow was to fall, accumulations
would not be expected.

Friday and through the rest of the forecast period, well below
normal temperatures will settle into the region. High
temperatures Friday and Saturday will only reach the upper 30`s
to lower 40`s which is nearly 10-15 degrees below normal. Low
temperatures will dip into the teens to mid 20`s with wind
chills possibly dipping down into the single digits to lower
teens. Guidance is beginning to depict a clipper type system
moving in from the northwest Saturday into Saturday night. It is
possible that light snow or flurries could result from this
system and NBM is beginning to show this with slight chance to
chance PoPs Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 408 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front`s approach will lead to deteriorating conditions
with time. Bases increase and lower, with restricted CIGS inplay
by/before daybreak. As the front moves in tmrw, anticipate gusty
south winds to become more southwesterly on approach with MVFR
bases lowering/yielding to IFR bases at times. An attendant
chance of showers is included for the daytime fropa, albeit
mainly in the planning phase of the forecast. Winds will shift
to gusty northwesterly after the fropa/brief window of a shower
chance along/ahead of it, toward the end of the day or by early
evening further east (KEVV-KOWB).


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$