782
FXUS63 KPAH 191913
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures and moderately humid conditions will
  continue through Monday.

- A couple of weak disturbances will bring a chance of showers
  and thunderstorms Friday morning to southeast Missouri and
  southwest Illinois and again Friday evening along the
  Interstate 64 corridor.

- The passage of a slow-moving cold front will bring a better
  chance of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms
  Sunday and Monday.

- Cooler conditions will follow the cold front`s passage for the
  middle part of next week, though small rain chances will
  persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...The region remains under the
influence of high pressure centered over the Mid and Deep South.
As the high translates east of the region, weak southwesterly
surface flow is advecting a more humid airmass into the region.
This will bring a distinctly summertime feel to our weather
pattern through the weekend. High temperatures will reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s. With the humidity, heat index values
will climb into the lower to middle 90s as well. Overnight lows
will fall into the lower to middle 60s over most of the area.

There are a couple periods with small rain chances that have
been added to the forecast for Friday. The first chance of rain
looks to be Friday morning across southwest Illinois and
southeast Missouri. This will be the decaying remnants of a
thunderstorms complex that will form overnight across MO/IA/MN
and dive southward towards our region. The second chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Friday evening along the
Interstate 64 corridor as another complex of scattered showers
and thunderstorms passes mainly north of the region. However,
the great majority of the area will be dry Friday, and even
those that do receive rain will not experience a washout by any
means.

Sunday through Monday night... A better chance of more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will return to the
forecast beginning Sunday and continue through Monday night.
This activity will be in conjunction with a cold front that
will slowly pass through the region during this time. There
looks to be a daily chance of convection, but not everyone will
see rain each day. Overall, most areas look to see roughly
0.25-0.50" during this period, with locally higher maxima
possible under heavier thunderstorm activity. The added clouds
and rain coverage will keep temperatures slightly cooler, with
forecast high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The cold front will slowly exit the
region by Tuesday, bringing cooler and gradually drier
conditions in its wake. High temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday look to reach the middle to upper 70s with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Persistent H5 troughing
aloft will result in a lingering chance of light rain showers
and as well as enhanced cloud cover.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the 18z TAFs, winds this afternoon will be light from the SW
under generally FEW-SCT diurnal CU with bases around 7kft. Winds
tonight will go calm, with shallow but periodically dense fog
again expected at CGI, mainly between 8-12z. Any fog will
rapidly dissipate by 13z, with winds again picking up from the
SW AOA 5 kft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS