010
FXUS63 KPAH 232112
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
412 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- "False Fall" will greet the region this coming week with below
  normal temperatures expected. Highs will range from the middle
  70s to lower 80s with lows falling into the 50s (even upper
  40s in a few locations). A few record lows are possible.

- Recent trends indicate rain chances may return to portions of
  the region later in the week. However, there remains fairly
  high uncertainty.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A deep upper low over Ontario, Canada will continue to drift across
southeast Canada through much of the coming week. This will maintain
a pronounced trough across the eastern CONUS leading to below normal
temperatures for us. A frontal boundary moves through tonight,
ushering in much drier and cooler air starting tomorrow and
continuing through the week ahead. Can`t completely rule out a stray
shower in the far north this evening, but convergence and moisture
along the boundary look quite weak.

We will reside within northwest flow aloft for the coming week. High
pressure at the surface should largely prevent any rain during the
early-mid week period. However, there is a disturbance passing by to
our southwest across OK/AR on Monday-Monday night, which some
guidance suggests could clip our southeast Missouri counties with
some light QPF. The GFS is the most bullish on this, and feel like
it`s likely too far north with the moisture. Most likely scenario is
an increase in cloud cover associated with it.

There is a growing signal for another disturbance to push east into
the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday or Friday. Ensemble solutions in
particular are keying in on this. There has been somewhat of a
northeastward shift with this system, so while uncertainty remains
rather high, the trend is suggesting we may end up with some
beneficial rains (with southeast Missouri the most favored at this
time).

Temperatures will feel more like late September as opposed to the
last week of August through the week ahead. Good radiational cooling
will allow larger diurnal ranges most days. Overnight lows should
fall well into the 50s many nights, and even some upper 40s seem
like a decent bet in the notoriously colder locations. Record lows
may even be challenged one or two nights. Highs will primarily range
from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Certainly could be chillier
across portions of the cwa later in the week if the
cloudier/wetter solution pan out though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

SCT-BKN bases at 4-6K FT AGL will linger into the evening as a
cold front approaches from the north. Its ultimate passage will
see some mid-high base potential overtop the lower cloud, but
should offer no restrictions other than potential VFR CIGS,
before skies clear altogether as 300+ MB condensation pressure
deficits work down the column. The drier air and light wind that
maintains upon passage should preclude fog inclusion from the
forecast, as guidance TDD`s suggest. Impressive dry air
advection tmrw behind the front should result in SKC conditions
excepting some FEW-SCT diurnal base potential around 5K FT AGL,
mainly north and east from KMVN-KEVV/KOWB. Northerlies behind
the fropa may pick up/include some gusts heading into/thru the
planning phase hours of the forecast tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$