832
FXUS63 KPAH 100555
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been extended through Thursday for daily
  heat index values of 103 to 109 degrees. Perry County, IL has
  been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for daily heat index
  values of 107 to 113 degrees.

- Daily rain chances return the middle of the week, with
  Wednesday evening and Thursday evening having the greatest
  risk at a 40-50% chance. There is the potential for a few
  storms to be strong along with heavy rainfall.

- Rain chances around 20% linger into next weekend with heat
  index values remaining elevated near 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A ridge of high pressure to the south will allow for ample hot and
humid conditions today to start off the week as southerly
return flow continues to keep dewpoints well in the 70s. Daily
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s will translate to heat
index values of 103 to 109 degrees. Have extended the Heat
Advisory into Thursday, while Perry County, IL has been upgraded
to an Extreme Heat Warning for heat index values of 107 to 113
degrees.

While the heat is the main headline, a series of shortwaves begin to
round the ridge as early as Tuesday night, and continue through the
end of the week. The ECMWF/NAM are more aggressive compared to the
GFS/CMC in bringing rain chances associated with a MCS in
sooner. Meanwhile, the consensus on the NBM remains drier,
supporting Wednesday evening and Thursday evening having the
greatest risk with a 40-50%. A few stronger storms will be
possible with ML guidance remaining consistent in showing some
low severe probabilities. However, the better synoptic setup to
support severe weather remains more north and east at this time.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where storms develop
with upwards a half to one inch.

By Thursday night into Friday, a cold front eventually washes out
and becomes stationary across the FA, keeping lingering rain
chances around 20% in the forecast into next weekend. While
some minor relief from the heat is expected, heat index values
are still progged to remain elevated near 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Guidance has trended stronger with south winds
overnight, so no fog is forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078-081>094.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ080.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS