845
FXUS63 KPAH 291053
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
553 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances come back on Friday, primarily in the evening and
  overnight hours where they peak at around 70-80% per the NBM.

- Rain chances pop up each afternoon Saturday through the middle
  of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today a longwave trof aloft sets up over the northeast CONUS keeping
us in northwest flow aloft as the upper ridge begins to shift west.
Behind the front today we have temperatures back into the mid to
upper 80s. Dewpoints will be lower today, in the mid 60s, and the
sfc high pressure keeps us dry and mainly clear (though there may be
some upper level smoke present). Tomorrow is more of the same while
an upper level trof approaches from the northwest and crests over
the ridge.

This upper trof begins to descend toward the CWA from the northwest
on Friday pushing a sfc low just ahead of it. Rain chances come
back on Friday morning in the west and push eastward, peaking
in the evening and overnight at around 70-80% in the NBM. Rain
chances then continue to pop up each afternoon through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Following the passage of a cold front, winds will be light N to
NE around 4-6 kts. Passing mid-level cloud cover gradually wane
in coverage during this afternoon across southeast MO, far
western KY, and southwest IL. In southeast IL, southwest IN, and
northwest KY, limited diurnal CU development is expected this
afternoon, with cloud bases between 5-7kft. Will need to watch
for patchy shallow fog development overnight, but confidence is
too low to include at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS