532
FXUS63 KPAH 301927
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat and humidity continue through early this
  evening with heat index readings above 105. Portions of the
  region near the Arkansas and Tennessee border might reach
  above 100 degrees on Thursday.

- A cold front will sweep through the region tonight into
  Thursday, bringing with it a chance (30-40%) of showers and
  thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts appear to be more spotty than
  widespread.

- Much more comfortable temperature and humidity levels will arrive
  Friday through the weekend.

- Early next week may be rather unsettled with scattered showers
  and storms. Humidity levels creep back to more seasonable
  summer readings while high temperatures remain slightly below
  normal (mid 80s) through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The long awaited break from this dangerous heat and humidity is
knocking on our doorstep. A cold front to our north will sweep
through the region tonight into tomorrow morning. A lot of
guidance really struggles to develop much in the way of
convection with it, so overall coverage may be more widely
scattered. While some activity is possible in our
Missouri/Illinois counties late this afternoon and evening, it
continues to look like our best chance will be from late morning
into the afternoon tomorrow. Can`t completely rule out a strong
storm either day, but the best shear remains to our north. We
are currently not even outlooked in a marginal by SPC.

The Excessive Heat Warning will expire at 8 PM this evening. We are
holding off issuing any heat headlines for Thursday, given
uncertainty with cloud cover and a possible early start to
convection. However, southern counties near the AR and TN borders
may still reach 88-92, which combined with dew points lingering into
the mid 70s may result in heat index readings exceeding 100 again.
It`s possible a Heat Advisory may be needed (based on duration
criteria). Will let the mid shift reassess to see if confidence
increases regarding that.

Drier, far less humid air, finally works into the area tomorrow
evening through Friday. Dew points drop into the low to mid 60s on
Friday, and even further into the 50s across portions of the region
on Saturday. A nice northerly breeze will also be present on Friday.
May be fairly close to Lake Wind Advisory threshold of 15 mph
actually. Sunday looks nice as well, with dew points remaining below
70 for a 3rd day!

Early next week looks a bit unsettled with scattered showers and
storms Monday and Tuesday. This may linger into Wednesday, but
general consensus has the activity shifted further east by then. A
disturbance aloft will dive southeast across the central CONUS
helping to carve out a mid-level trough that pivots over the Ohio
Valley Mon-Tues. Meanwhile the ridge that had been influencing our
weather will be suppressed to the southwest U.S. this weekend
through early next week. There are some hints that it may amplify
into the Ozarks/TN Valley again by mid to late next week, which
could result in a return of temps above 90 for our region. Until
then though, temperatures look to remain below normal Friday through
Tuesday, primarily in the low to mid 80s. The coolest mornings will
be Saturday and Sunday, when lows fall into the low to mid 60s. A
few readings in the 50s are even possible in northern locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A few showers and storms may develop along remnant outflow
working towards our northwest counties and also into the Ozark
Foothills this afternoon. Included PROB30 mention at KMVN for
this. May have more fog development overnight, although some
increase in clouds and slight uptick in wind towards early
morning may lead to less coverage compared to this morning.
Guidance is hinting at some MVFR cigs pushing southeast into the
region tomorrow morning behind the frontal passage. Light winds
will become NNW around 5-8 kts by late morning. Confidence is
too low to include shower or thunderstorm mention in terminals
tonight or tomorrow morning, as coverage looks fairly minimal at
this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP