137
FXUS63 KPAH 041712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong high pressure will keep the weekend warm/dry.

- A rainy pattern emerges early next week with cumulative
  average Monday-Tuesday rainfall amounts generally in the 0.50
  to 1.50 inch range. Locally higher and lower totals are
  possible.

- A drier and more seasonal temperature pattern returns for the
  back half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A broad anticyclone with H5 heights in the mid to upper 580s DM and
surface high pressure centered just to the east holding in the lower
1020s mb will keep a dry/warm flow pattern for us the remainder of
the weekend. Return circulatory wrap around the eastward meandering
high does nudge dew points upward from the 50s into the mid-upper
60s by Monday-Tuesday. That`s when columnar moisture input is best
on the rise, and height falls start to break into the dominance of
the ridge as a developing High Plains/Upper Midwest system drops a
cold front that marks its approach to/over the PAH FA. The model`s
indication of limited instability and weak shear provides little
impetus for strong-svr storms at this writing here, but the ample
moisture return and overall pcpn efficiency should make for a nice
soaking rainy period that yields anywhere from up to a half inch or
so in some locales, to perhaps 1.5 inches or better in others. These
amounts are not generally expected to cause issues, esp as they`ll
spread out over a 48-72 hour period. However, with rising PWAT`s as
indicated by NAEFS, ESAT pings low end 2-5 year Return Intervals on
90th percentile plus source moisture; so locally higher amounts
might not shock to produce isolated flooding issues, perhaps mostly
for prone locales.

After the aforementioned system completes passage Tuesday night, a
drier and more seasonal air mass takes over. High return generally
to the 70s with lows ranging from the upper half 40s to/thru the 50s
for the back half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows anticipated diurnal based cu average
5-7K FT AGL at genesis with mostly SCT bases. High pressure to our
east remains more or less stationary and holds its strength
into/thru the day tmrw, so persistence strategy forecasting remains
the preferred option. In addition to the diurnal cu, spotty/isolated
late nite MIFG is possible, probably at prone CGI and/or MVN if
it occurs at all.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$