204
FXUS63 KPAH 261837
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for prolonged
  duration daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms on Friday will
  increase in coverage over the weekend and into Monday.
  Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will be
  possible.

- Temperatures will be slightly cooler this weekend, but
  humidity levels remain high keeping heat index readings in
  the upper 90s to around 100.

- More seasonable temperatures (upper 80s) and lower humidity
  levels are expected by Wednesday next week along with dry
  weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Today marks day #6 with heat index readings reaching 100 degrees for
most of our region. The upper level ridge responsible for the
excessive heat is gradually breaking down, with daily rain chances
increasing as we head into the weekend and early next week. An
initial vorticity lobe migrates into our area Friday night into
Saturday morning, which should lead to an uptick in convective
coverage. Additional activity is likely to form on the outflow
boundaries through the day. Yet another weak wave may meander
towards us on Sunday, before the primary shortwave dives across the
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday which brings a cold front through
our area Monday night. Precipitable water values are forecast to
exceed 2" or slightly higher during much of this period, which will
lead to very efficient rainfall from any storm. Little in the way of
shear though, so storms will remain quite pulsy.

One more day in the low to mid 90s is forecast on Friday. The
increased convection and cloud cover this weekend should lead to
slightly lower readings in the upper 80s to around 90. However,
dewpoints will remain high (in the mid 70s) so it will still feel
very uncomfortable outside with heat index readings in the upper 90s
to around 100. There is still some chance the Heat Advisory may need
extended for portions of the region, but it may end up just shy of
criteria.

Models have trended slightly slower with the drier, less humid air
working into the region, which may keep lingering PoPs going on
Tuesday (at least in the south). There still is a good signal for
dewpoints to fall into the mid to upper 60s next Wednesday and
Thursday. So while temperatures don`t cool off much (still upper
80s), it will feel more tolerable outside (typical July heat). A
couple of dry days are forecast before rain chances may creep back
into the forecast by the 4th of July and into next weekend. Lot of
model variability with regards to how far northeast the ridge builds
again. This will dictate whether the heat and humidity return for
the holiday weekend or we end up with rounds of showers and storms
along the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

SCT-BKN cu field with bases around 4-5kft will dissipate with
sunset and then bubble up again late morning on Friday. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA is possible this afternoon, and went ahead and
included PROB30s for terminals most likely to see development
near them. Additional convection is possible Friday afternoon.
Winds will be out of the southwest 5-8 kts during the day and
become light overnight. There may be some patchy fog again early
Friday morning, particularly at fog prone sites like KMVN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP