273
FXUS63 KPAH 140718
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
218 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After another typical summer day today, temperatures will
  climb into the middle 90s over most of the region Friday
  through Tuesday. Afternoon heat indices will range from 100 to
  105.

- A 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for
  most of the region this afternoon through sunset. Brief heavy
  downpours and lightning will accompany any thunderstorms
  today. Dry weather is then on tap from Friday through Tuesday.

- Normal heat and humidity will return Wednesday, along with a
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The surface pressure field will remain very flat across the
Quad State today, so winds will remain very weak. The average
wind speed at KPAH yesterday was a whopping 1 mph! Given weak
troughiness aloft and lingering low-level moisture, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over most of the Quad
State this afternoon through sunset. The best chance (30%) will
be over west Kentucky. We will not be as dry aloft, so
downdraft potential may not be that great today. Look for brief
heavy downpours and lightning with any storms this afternoon.

With the troughiness aloft lingering through tonight, an
isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out after
sunset, but the chance is too low to mention at this time.

High pressure aloft is still on track to build eastward over the
Quad State Friday into the weekend. The warming temperatures
aloft should prevent any thunderstorm development beginning
Friday and continuing through Tuesday.

Temperatures will climb into the middle 90s over most of the
region through this period, while dewpoints hold in the lower
70s. This will result in afternoon heat indices in the 100 to
105 range. Some guidance has temperatures climbing into the upper
90s, but that would come with greater mixing of dewpoints, so
the heat indices would still remain in the 100 to 105 range.
There are no plans for any heat headlines at this time.

The ridge finally gets squashed as upper-level energy dives
southeast through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front through the Quad State
resulting in a decent chance of showers and storms, and a
cooling trend heading into the latter half of next week. Wind
fields will still be weak, so any convection should remain
unorganized and generally below severe limits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Fog will be primary factor overnight tonight. High level clouds
are clearing quickly with very light/calm winds across the area
and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Fog is always tricky but for now
appears better than even chances for IFR visibility or worse in
the predawn hours, starting first over southeast Missouri -
where the clouds cleared first - and spreading eastward through
the overnight. VFR conditions are then expected during the
daytime Thursday with light winds a few showers are possible
but the potential is too low for TAF mention right now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG