806
FXUS63 KPAH 102321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
  this afternoon and evening, decreasing overnight. A low end
  threat for a few severe storms (5% chance) is in place through
  this evening mainly for the south half of the region for some
  damaging wind potential.

- A somewhat unsettled pattern continues Friday and Saturday
  with a 40-50% chance for scattered showers and storms. The
  potential may be confined to west Kentucky and southwest
  Indiana on Saturday.

- After slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) the next
  couple of days highs return back to 90 degrees Sunday
  through mid next week. There is certainly no sign of Fall
  weather in the next 7 days at least.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A weak frontal boundary is draped across the region today. The
persistent showers that have been ongoing across the north half of
the region are finally beginning to shrivel up. Meanwhile, isolated
convection has developed mainly across west Kentucky where the
highest instability is. A shortwave aloft to our west will slowly
pivot eastward and provide additional lift by this evening for more
widespread showers and storms to develop. The environment in place
is certainly capable of at least a few severe storms with deep layer
shear of 30-35 kts and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg. Mid level lapse
rates are poor and freezing levels are high, so damaging winds
should be the primary concern with any of the stronger storms.
Coverage of storms is anticipated to increase as we get into the
early evening timeframe. The window of concern for severe storms may
continue into mid or late evening (03-04z) before subsiding.

A mid level disturbance will slowly shift eastward across the Ozark
Plateau and lower Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday, providing a
focus for at least scattered showers and storms each day. Looks like
the threat may be more confined to just west Kentucky and possibly
southwest Indiana on Saturday. Shear and instability are weaker so
not expecting any severe storms the next couple of days.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region Sunday and remains
in place through mid next week. 90 degree temperatures are likely
(60-80% chance via the LREF) across the southwest half of the area
on Sunday and the entire area Monday through Wednesday. Perhaps we
can finally get some cooler weather by the later next week or the
weekend of September 19-20. Guidance has been waffling back and
forth whether to bring a true shot of cooler air (highs in the 70s)
or just bring us closer to normal in the low to mid 80s by that time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Convection should blossom over southeast Missouri this evening
and spread eastward across west Kentucky and far southern
Illinois, continuing into the overnight before waning in
intensity by 08-09z. -SHRA may continue until daybreak across
parts of west Kentucky including KPAH. Restrictions to vsby and
cigs are expected, especially in the heavier activity. Guidance
continues to suggest a low stratus and/or lower vsby reductions
by early Friday morning. Have lower confidence we will see IFR
or lower vsbys, but confidence is higher for the IFR or even
LIFR stratus deck to develop. Conditions will be slow to improve
through the day on Friday, likely staying MVFR until early or
mid afternoon. Additional scattered convection is possible on
Friday, with the best chance at KPAH/KOWB in the later
afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP