624
FXUS63 KPAH 121115
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
515 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next disturbance will traverse the area today through
  this evening. Temperatures are "warmer" and the system is
  expected to produce rain for much of the area. There still may
  be an early mix of freezing rain from roughly Wayne County MO
  northeastward to Perry IL and points westward.

- The main focus then turns to a significant rain producer
  Friday night through Saturday night. Rainfall totals will
  range from 2 to 4 inches across the area from northwest to
  southeast respectively. Flooding will be a concern with this
  system.

- Much colder temperatures can be expected for the beginning of
  next week with the next chance of wintry precipitation
  arriving by Tuesday. Wind chill readings will also be very
  chilly, dropping as low as the single digits above zero for
  Sunday night!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The next system will pass through the area today before departing
the area late this evening and overnight. A low pressure system will
develop over MS/LA this morning then lift north-northeastward into
roughly western KY this evening. Plenty of moisture will be
available for this system to produce widespread rain; however, there
is a chance that the precipitation will start out as a wintry mix of
freezing rain or possibly a little sleet from roughly Carter County
MO to Perry County IL. Overall temperatures at the surface are
expected to be marginal to see freezing rain especially with
temperatures not being particularly cold recently, so elevated
surfaces such as bridges and overpasses would stand the greatest
chance at seeing impacts, especially if untreated. As far as timing
goes, the most likely time period for seeing freezing rain/sleet in
those area would be from around sunrise this morning as precipitation
begins to around 10 am before temperatures warm just above freezing.
Dewpoint temperatures are expected to climb above freezing by around
18Z, even over SEMO, which should allow temperatures to warm above
freezing even with any latent heat release (wet bulb cooling). HREF
probabilities show a 60-70% probability of seeing 0.01 inches of ice
accumulation in northern Bollinger and Perry Counties in MO, but
very low probabilities elsewhere through this event. The rest of the
area is expected to remain warm enough to see all rain. In fact,
most of the area will see highs warm into the 40s to possibly around
50 throughout the day, with the exception of SEMO and southern
Illinois. Most locations will see a quarter inch or less of rainfall
from this event.

The weekend system is expected to develop over the Texas/Oklahoma
border late Friday night into Saturday morning before lifting east-
northeastward into Tennessee Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
The flow will be wide open to the Gulf, which again leads to ample
moisture flow northward with the system. In fact, models are
painting out an additional 2 to 4 inches with the heaviest totals
expected to be across western Kentucky into southwest Indiana. NBM
probabilities would suggest roughly a 50 to 85% probability of
seeing 2 inches or more of rainfall across most of our county
warning area for Friday night through Saturday night!! Again, all of
the additional rainfall will lead to continued rises on area rivers
and we will likely need a Flood Watch at some point ahead of that
system. Will be watching that closely. Thunderstorms are also
expected across SEMO into western KY as the probability of seeing
200+ J/kg of instability jumps to around 50% with mid level-lapse
rates increasing to around 6.5-7 C/km late Friday night through
Saturday. Temperatures will largely be in the upper 40s to 50s
across the area, so all rain expected.

Early next week, Sunday through Tuesday, much colder air will advect
into the area from the north. This will allow for a brief transition
to a rain/snow mix as the weekend system departs the Quad State, but
currently only expecting minor accumulations from that system. As
temperatures drop and the wind increase we are expected wind chill
readings to drop into the single digits to low teens above zero for
Sunday into Monday. Another system that may bring accumulating snow
is set to approach the area Tuesday into next Wednesday. Again, a
lot of details to sort out, but definitely worth monitoring the cold
and snow potential for next week!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Low ceilings will be the rule through this TAF issuance with
some improvement possible toward the end of this issuance.
Ceilings will generally be in the 300ft-600ft range with fog
and rain reducing visibilities to 1-3 miles through this
evening. Winds are expected remain near or under 10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC