232
FXUS63 KPAH 131947
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will be 7 to 10+
  degrees above normal in the middle to upper 90s.

- Lower humidity levels will keep heat indices close to the
  actual temperatures.

- Small chances of showers and few thunderstorms return late in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Upper level ridging will continue to build through the weekend over
the Mississippi valley up through the Great Lakes region as a
trof continues to dig southward over the western half of the
U.S.  At the surface, a weak boundary is lifting through the
PAH forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have
developed in portions of southeast Missouri into southwest
Illinois this afternoon.  Despite lacking moisture, models show
potential for some showers and a few thunderstorms in southwest
Indiana and adjacent portions of southeast Illinois down to the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky late tonight. On Sunday, hot
temperatures and weak instability could produce some showers and
isolated thunderstorms across our region in the afternoon and
early evening. Again, lacking moisture will keep coverage widely
scattered in nature at best, and amounts will do little to
nothing to improve the very dry conditions across our area.

The main story Sunday through Wednesday will be the well above
normal temperatures. Highs each day will reach the middle to
upper 90s, which is near 10 degrees above season normals. By
late week, the upper ridge will be breaking down, allowing the
western trof to push eastward toward our region. At the surface,
a weak slow moving cold front will be approaching from the
west. The model blend produces 20-30% chances of showers and
storms in the Thursday through Friday night time period, which
seems a good starting point.  We will also see temperatures
trending cooler, with readings closer to seasonal normals by
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Skies will be VFR through the TAF period with SCT-BKN100 clouds
into tonight, then SCT050 cumulus and some mid clouds Sunday.
Except for potential for some brief MVFR ground fog between
09z-13z mainly at KCGI, VFR vsbys are expected. An isolated
SHRA/TSRA is not completely out of the question, but chances
are too low to include. Winds will be from the southwest/south
around 5 kts during the daylight hours, and light
southwest/south to calm during the evening and overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST