266
FXUS63 KPAH 050445
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern arrives later today/tonight and continues
  through Saturday. Additional rain chances may linger through
  Monday before dry conditions arrive for a few days next week.

- While widespread significant severe weather is not
  anticipated, a few storms may become severe each day through
  Friday. Damaging winds are the main threat. The overall risk
  might be highest on Friday afternoon.

- Periods of locally heavy rain are expected through Saturday. Rainfall
  amounts between 1 and 3 inches are forecast, with localized
  higher amounts up to 4 or 5 inches possible. A few minor
  flooding issues are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A frontal boundary is draped from southwest MO up into central IL
this afternoon. This boundary is located on the southeastern
periphery of a longer wave trough positioned across the North
Central U.S. Coverage of convection will increase across our IL and
MO counties late this afternoon through the evening, and eventually
sneak into portions of southwest IN and west KY overnight. Deep
layer shear isn`t great, only 25-30 knots at best, but modest
instability of 1000-1500 j/kg may be enough to lead to some weakly
organized activity that may briefly become severe. The greater
concern from later this evening into Thursday morning is heavy
rainfall and possible flooding concerns. As the boundary gets
hung up with flow oriented more parallel to it, training
convection is a distinct possibility. Several CAMs indicate
swaths of 2-3", with localized amounts up to 5". This zone is
most likely across our IL and MO counties which resides within a
corridor of healthy pwat values that will be in the 1.8 to 2"
range.

With the boundary remaining parked nearby and additional
disturbances moving through, showers and thunderstorms will continue
off and on through Saturday. Most guidance indicates a short break
on Sunday before another wave may kick off additional showers and
storms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong to severe storms can`t
be completely ruled out on Thursday, but shear will remain rather
weak (30 kts at best). A slightly greater threat may arrive on
Friday as deep layer shear is forecast to increase to closer to 40
kts. However, a key to Friday may be how much we destabilize due to
the possibility of morning clouds and any lingering convection.
Still a low confidence situation at this point, but there`s at least
some low end potential for some severe storms Friday afternoon with
damaging winds likely being the greatest concern.

As a longwave trough dives down across the Ohio Valley next week, a
drier and less humid airmass should move across our region Tuesday
into Wednesday. Thereafter, models diverge on how quickly additional
energy moves in, but some possibility of rain exists by later in the
week again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Convection, low ceilings and intermittent reduction in
visibility will be the main concerns through this TAF issuance.
Intermittent showers and storms are anticipated at each of the
TAF sites through the day Thursday. Gusty erratic winds are
possible with any of the storms along with brief reductions in
visibility to IFR or possibly lower.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC