954
FXUS63 KPAH 030623
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
123 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring cooler than normal temperatures and
  comfortable humidity levels this weekend through early next
  week.

- A small (15-30%) chance of thunderstorms returns to the
  forecast Sunday afternoon over the southern KY Pennyrile,
  followed by broader daily thunderstorm chances (20-40%)
  through Wednesday, with the greatest chances east of the
  Mississippi River.

- A gradual warming trend through the week will return
  temperature and humidity levels to near normal for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The region sits in a much cooler and more pleasant airmass this
morning than what we saw much of the previous week. An upper
trough currently coming off the Rockies will slosh a little bit
more humidity into the area today but not enough to make it feel
oppressive again. A few showers may spark up in this higher
humidity over the southern Kentucky Pennyrile later this
afternoon.

Monday another shortwave approaches the area with moisture
pulling up from the deeper south. All guidance has this wave
moving overhead by midday which could result in a few more
showers in the morning. Missing peak heating should keep
coverage more in the scattered category. The shortwave then
stalls and retrogrades slightly westward into Tuesday. Expecting
showers/thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low with drier
air and less coverage in the west but the exact placement, which
could be modified by convective coverage, will be uncertain and
I wouldn`t be shocked to see it a little weaker than currently
modeled in the guidance. Generally the GFS keeps it weaker and a
little more centered over the quad-state, where the ECMWF has it
further east. PWATs are lower than what we have been seeing this
summer at 1.5 to 1.6 inches, with dewpoints 64-68 instead of the
gaudier numbers we have seen so far this summer. In all 20-40%
coverage situation with warming temps as mid level heights
increase, but likely not reaching back into heat advisory levels
with both surface max temps and dewpoints lower than what we saw
in late July.



 &&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Surface high pressure retains its influence upon terminal flight
weather this package. The result will be diurnal cu fields in
the lower VFR range, generally FEW-SCT but time/height cross
sections do suggest some BKN CIGS possible by/during the
planning phase afternoon hours of the forecast, so we included
its provisional potential this writing. It is possible a prone
terminal like KMVN rings the obs with some daybreak
fog/restricting vsbys, but with TDD`s staying AOA 2-3F even
there, we`ve removed its mention for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...