457
FXUS63 KPAH 242056
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pattern change this week will bring below normal
  temperatures to the region. Highs will range from the middle
  70s to lower 80s with lows falling into the 50s (even upper
  40s in a few locations). A few record lows are possible.

- Much of the week will be dry, but chances of rain may return
  to portions of the region later in the week. However, there
  remains fairly high uncertainty, and only a some portion of
  the region may actually see any rain through the entire week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The 500mb pattern will feature troughing across the eastern CONUS
through the week, place our region in northwest flow. At the
surface, high pressure builds south across the Midwest and
eventually centers over our cwa by Tuesday night into Wednesday.

There are two disturbances that will migrate southeastward from
OK/KS into AR this week. The first of these occurs tonight through
Monday night and the second happens Wednesday night through
Thursday. The first one in particular will have a deep column of dry
air situated to it`s northeast, so likely will negate any rain from
occurring across essentially our entire cwa (except possibly
southern portions of southeast MO nearest the AR border). The second
system presents slightly better odds of it`s rain shield actually
making it into southeast MO, but even this may really struggle to
get much QPF, if any, north of the MO/AR border. There remains
fairly high uncertainty with this system, but the ensembles continue
to paint some QPF impacting mainly our southeast MO counties on
Thursday.

Temperatures will average below normal throughout the week ahead.
High temperatures struggle to reach 80 in many areas through
Thursday with overnight lows well into the 50s (possibly some upper
40s even). The coldest night may end up being Tuesday night with the
surface high overhead. Deep mixing of the drier air aloft should
allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 40s on Wednesday, which are
near record values for late August. Record low temperatures are in
jeopardy a couple of days as well, particularly Wednesday morning.
The prolonged duration of this cool spell is rather noteworthy for
August. Paducah hasn`t observed 2 straight days with highs below 80
in the month of August since 2013. Also, if the current forecast
holds and we witness 6 consecutive days with lows falling below 60
degrees, it`d be only the 3rd time on record in the month of August
and first time since 2004!

Guidance suggests temperatures may moderate back closer to normal
over Labor Day weekend with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. The
ECMWF/Canadian ensemble suites keep us largely dry through the
holiday weekend and is the preferred solution at this time. However,
the GFS and its ensemble suggests some rain chances may return,
particularly Sunday and Labor Day. This is certainly the outlier
solution at this point though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

5-6K FT AGL FEW-SCT bases should disperse with loss of fuel,
leaving moclear evening skies before time/height cross sections
show the satellite depicted mid-high level clouds just upstream
moving in later tonight-tmrw...affecting mainly KCGI-KPAH.
TDD`s should stay up enough to preclude widespread fog tonight,
though isolated patches in prone locales cannot be completely
ruled out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$