487
FXUS63 KPAH 310813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle and fog will continue through daybreak, then
  widely scattered showers will be possible this afternoon and
  evening.

- Temperatures will be well above normal for the next week, and
  some locations over west Kentucky and southeast Missouri may
  see readings reach 70 degrees through the work week.

- Rain returns to the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.
  Thunderstorms will also be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

The more significant rain has ended across the Quad State, so
the remaining portion of the Flood Watch has been cancelled.
Patches of drizzle will continue over the eastern half of the
region through daybreak, while areas of fog, locally dense,
will remain possible over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. The Dense Fog Advisory remains unaltered for now.

A surface low is expected lift northeast across southeast
Missouri and into southern Illinois by daybreak. In its wake,
southwest winds will increase and possibly become gusty. This
will bring an end to any fog concern, so we will likely be able
to cancel at least the southern portion of the Dense Fog
Advisory early.

This afternoon, as the upper trough and cold front move across the
Quad State, isolated to scattered showers will be possible.
There may be just enough instability to support a brief
thunderstorm or two ahead of the cold front across west
Kentucky. Otherwise, the showers should diminish as they move
southeast across the region through the evening.

Weak surface high pressure will build over the Quad State
tonight into Saturday, as the flow aloft becomes zonal. This
will lead to a modest cooldown on Saturday, but it will still be
several degrees above normal levels. Southwest winds will
return Sunday and that will lead to a prolonged period of very
mild temperatures with highs mostly in the 50s and 60s, with the
potential for a few 70 degree readings in the south Monday
through Thursday. Lows by mid-week will be very mild with
readings well above normal HIGH temperatures.

The medium range guidance was struggling with the details of
energy within the zonal flow aloft through the week, and there
will be an east to west frontal boundary sagging south toward
the region Monday and then lingering in our vicinity through the
week. Moisture will be very limited early in the week, so the
forecast is dry through Tuesday evening. However, moisture will
return south of the front by Wednesday and surface dewpoints
could approach 60 degrees. This definitely would support a
chance of thunderstorms near and south of the front. The zonal
flow aloft could bring an elevated mixed layer over the region
which could limit convection, but it could also lead to steep
lapse rates aloft, so severe storms cannot be ruled out.

WPC QPF and NBM PoPs are currently emphasizing the Wednesday
night into Thursday time frame for a more substantial, one and
done, cold frontal passage with a period of more widespread
showers and storms. This is associated with a stronger northern
stream trough riding along the northern tier and Canada. Given
the variance in recent ensemble guidance, this should be taken
with a grain of salt until more consistency develops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Showers are working their way through the remainder of the Quad
State. Pockets of MVFR to VFR cigs aside, cigs will generally be
IFR to LIFR overnight. Brief dense fog development is possible
in the northwestern portions of the forecast area where winds
are most likely to calm, while less restrictive vsbys remain
elsewhere. Winds become breezy out of the southwest tomorrow as
cigs rise to MVFR to VFR. Showers are possible in the afternoon.
MVFR cigs return areawide towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>082-084-085-088.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL