772
FXUS63 KPAH 190738
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of dangerous heat and humidity with highs in the
  mid to upper 90s and heat index values ranging between 100
  and 108 degrees this afternoon. Heat Advisory remains in
  effect through this afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon. A few of
  the storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- A cold front will pass through late tonight allowing
  temperatures to fall back toward normal levels. Another cold
  front will move through over the weekend significantly
  reducing temperatures and dropping humidity levels. It will
  feel very fall-like late in the weekend into next week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The upper-level ridge that has kept us very hot and humid over the
past several days will begin to break down later today as a
shortwave and cold front approaches, then passes through the area.
Heat index values will once again reach the 100-108 degree range for
much of the area this afternoon, which led to the continuation of
the Heat Advisory.

The cold front will sag through the area from north to south late
this afternoon through into tonight before shifting south of the
area by early Wednesday morning. Near the frontal boundary,
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected (40-50% chance).
Very heavy downpours with localized totals approaching an inch in
the strongest thunderstorms possible. The area is outlooked for a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall. The storms that develop today
into this evening will have the potential to produce localized
damaging downburst winds across most of the Quad State area.
Instability values are forecast to be up to 3k J/kg along and ahead
of the front, plenty to produce strong updrafts. Drier air in the
mid levels along with an inverted V type sounding below 800mb all
suggest the potential for colder/more dense downdrafts in any
collapsing pulse-type storm. The Marginal Risk for severe storms
this afternoon into this evening still looks good from the SPC.

Near normal temperatures can then be expected with drier weather
after the front passes well south of the area by Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures for Wednesday through Saturday are expected
to be in the mid to upper 80s. A strong, moisture-starved cold front
is expected to pass through the area Saturday night into Sunday
bringing an early taste of fall-like weather into early next week.
In fact, temperatures are expected to drop below normal with highs
in the low to mid 80s on Sunday dropping to the upper 70s and low
80s by Monday. Low temperatures will likely drop into the 50s!!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Some patchy ground fog is possible again during the pre-dawn
hours Tuesday morning, primarily at the western terminals.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon and linger into the evening, so included PROB30
mention at all terminals to account for that. Winds start out
the day with more of a southwesterly component and gradually
become northwesterly during the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC