141
FXUS63 KPAH 011006
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
506 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The dangerous heatwave will continue through the remainder of
  the week with a Heat Advisory in effect through Friday. There
  is a 70- 90% chance headlines will need to be extended into
  Saturday.

- Several record warm overnight low temperatures are possible
  this week in the mid 70s.

- Low rain chances likely hold off for most of the region until
  late Saturday into Saturday night, with a 20-30% chance of
  rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where isolated to
  scattered showers and thunderstorms occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The dangerous heatwave will continue through the remainder of the
week with a stout ridge of high pressure in control over the lower
Ohio Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA
through Friday for heat index values ranging from 100-108, with most
locations around 103-106 on average. Compared to Monday, model
soundings support an even deeper dry adiabatic layer upwards of 700
mb, where the NAEFS indicates 30-year return intervals for
temperatures that fall above the 99th percentile. Given more
sufficient compression at the sfc and the potential to mix down
slightly lower dewpoints in the upper 60s during peak diurnal
heating, daily highs ranging from the upper 90s to locally 100
degrees are probable. Should afternoon dewpoints remain more
elevated in the lower 70s, a upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning may
need to be considered as this forecast package has been blended
towards CONS guidance. For now, locations exceeding a daily heat
index of 105 is still too sporadic until the latter half of the
week, but there will be exceptions locally. Several record warm
overnight low temperatures are also possible this week in the mid
70s.

As for the potential for rain chances that will bring some relief,
the ECMWF has trended more towards the GFS with the bulk of the
chances holding off until late Saturday into Saturday night. The
delay of the ridge breaking down means a 70-90% chance on the LREF
for needing to extend the heat headlines into Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will also be pretty hit or miss, with a 20-30%
chance of rainfall amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch on the
GEFS/EPS. Depending on how quickly a cold front moves through on
Sunday that will bring an end to the heatwave, rain chances may
linger.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Mostly sunny skies with FEW diurnal cu around 8 kft AGL is
forecast today. Winds will be SSW around 5-9 kts. Clear skies
are expected again tonight with winds diminishing below 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW