585
FXUS63 KPAH 170452
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist into
  the weekend with rain chances peaking at 40 to 60% each
  afternoon. A stronger gusty storm cannot be ruled out on
  Saturday, especially northeast across southwest Indiana.

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into next week with
  heat index values nearing 105 degrees on Tuesday. Relief
  arrives the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A broad upper level ridge will weaken this weekend with increasing
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Showers have already
across the FA, with rain chances peaking this afternoon during
diurnal heating. A frontal boundary eventually approaches the tri-
state on Friday, followed by a weak shortwave trough Friday evening
that will bring additional rain chances peaking around 40 to 60%
each day. Despite 2000 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, poor lapse rates and
meager shear will favor pulse convection. PWAT`s over 2 inches will
also support locally heavy rainfall with torrential downpours that
can lead to nuisance localized flooding issues in more prone urban
locations.

On Saturday, sfc low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region
with another frontal boundary that sags south and stalls by Sunday
morning. As another shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley, a slight
uptick in the shear combined with 6.5 to 7.0 C/km sfc-3km lapse
rates and 25-35 K theta-e difference will support a marginal risk
for isolated stronger storms. The main concern will be the potential
for downbursts, especially northeast across southwest Indiana. Rain
chances linger into Sunday before trending drier on Monday ahead of
a cold front that will eventually move through on Tuesday. The
unsettled weather will not bring much relief as heat index values
will gradually trend higher, nearing 105 degrees by Tuesday before a
cool down eventually arrives for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Most locations are close to saturation already, so mentioned
MVFR fog at all sites overnight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could
impact all sites mostly through the afternoon, but there is a
signal for activity to linger into the evening at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS