673
FXUS63 KPAH 092259
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally quiet weather with near normal temperatures is forecast
  through the next seven days. Most areas will see a quarter of
  an inch or less of rainfall.

- A small (10-20%) chance of showers is forecast late tonight north
  of Interstate 64, followed by another chance of showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening along the MO/AR and
  KY/TN borders.

- A second low-end chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms
  is forecast Tuesday night across the Interstate 64 corridor,
  the Evansville Tri-State, and the KY Pennyrile.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally quiet/benign weather is expected this weekend through
Friday. The synoptic pattern will feature a stout H5 ridge across
the western CONUS, while the eastern CONUS will be under H5
troughing. A couple of weak mid-level shortwaves (and associated
surface lows and front) will bring small rain chances to the area,
mainly through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be
near normal mid-May values (give or take 5 degrees or so).

Late tonight, a weak surface front will move into the area from the
north. A weak surface inflection, could initiate isolated showers
north of Interstate 64 (10-20% chance), but the great majority of
the region will be dry. Sunday afternoon and night, the front will
sink to near the AR/MO and KY/TN border areas. Another weak
surface ripple along the front boundary will kick off a few more
showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance), but again the great
majority of the region will be dry. Areas that do see rain
Sunday night will see a trace up to 0.10".

A second surface cold front will approach the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday, initiating more isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the Interstate 64 corridor, Evansville Tri-State, and KY
Pennyrile. Moisture will again be lacking ahead of the front, so
right now only a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms is
forecast. Precipitation amounts look to be quite light again, only
up to 0.10" in areas that do see rain.

Dry and seasonably mild weather is forecast for the rest of the
work week behind the frontal passage. After seeing a few
rounds of much needed-rain over the last couple of weeks,
drought conditions may begin to worse again over the next week.
Additionally, depending on the wind and RH forecast on
Wednesday, fire weather may become an issue during the
afternoon. As it stands, the NBM already has 25-30% minimum RH
values forecast, which may trend lower with future updates.

Looking beyond the end of the forecast window, ensemble
guidance is showing the ridge over the western CONUS will shift
eastward and set up over the central CONUS by next weekend. This
would bring a return of summertime temperatures. The NBM
ensemble shows a 40-60% chance of highs in the 90s on Saturday,
5/16 and a 50-80% chance on Sunday, 5/17.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cold front will sink south across the area tonight. Winds will
become light and variable with sunset and then turn northerly
around 5-10 kts tomorrow. An increase in mid and high clouds is
expected overnight across northern terminals. A few light
showers are also possible, mainly at KMVN. We will see an
increase in mid cloud across the rest of the region during the
day on Sunday. It appears any shower or thunderstorm potential
late in the afternoon would stay south of the terminals near
the TN/AR borders.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SP