400
FXUS63 KPAH 190603
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
103 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An approaching MCS still holds some potential to bring a
  marginal risk of damaging winds to our far northwest counties
  toward daybreak.

- Additional storm development and intensification leads to a
  slight risk of severe storms by this evening, extending into
  the overnight hours. Damaging winds will again be the primary
  threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

- A brief return to stifling humidity and hotter temperatures
  today will buoy back toward more comfortable 80s and lowering
  dew points to the 60s again by the week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

We`ll be closely tracking the currently developing MCS for
severe chances for us toward daybreak. Severe wx parameters are
marginal here, so much will depend upon the boundary`s evolving
placement and the complex of storms track along it as there are
some high-res modeling discrepancies of its evolution here to
consider. The net sum standing order will be watching the whites
of its eyes as it nears, as it`ll be an incoming approach to be
seen vs an overhead blow-up. There is some concern that
degrading lapse rates and instability will retard its intensity
in our neck of the woods, but for now, we`re thinking it is
threatening the vicinity of our Perry counties of IL/MO right
around sunup. It could well be diminishing and below severe, or,
it could bring in some svr gusts before doing so.

After the MCS shoves its elements eastward across the FA this
morning, a general wane in activity is anticipated before the
next wave of activity or threat thereof picks up again by this
evening, extending into the overnight. The atmosphere at that
time is much more primed for svr with bulk shear nearly doubling
and where the low rides the boundary, a sliver of elevated SRH
suggests isolated tornadic potential as well. We like SPC`s bulk
SLGT and won`t be altogether shocked if it nudges upwards, but
there is enough uncertainty wrt daytime convective outflow and
air mass recovery and boundary lay-out placement that
effectively muddies that up at this writing. Another potential
concern will be heavy rain impacts given the steering flow for
training but with going storm totals in the 1-1.5" range and
the axis shifting thru the day, we`ll likely hold off on any FFA
for now and highlight the potential in a training/repeat
localized fashion for now.

That`s really the main game story right there, but the trailing
sub-header is for pops to linger thru the week`s end as the
primary long wave trof translates slowly but sureley across the
FA and off to the east. Cooler/drier air takes its time but
works its way on in, halting the temporary swell of temps toward
or into the 90s and dew points in the mid 70s back to temps in
the 80s and dew points dropping to around 70, before emerging
with some 60s again over the weekend. The aforementioned combo
flirts us with some heat advisory headline criteria on portions
of our southern border with AR into far west TN, but we`ll
likely lay low on any headline up here given its overall
marginality.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

An MCS upstream will shove its associated convective elements
with lowering cigs/bases into and across the flight terminals
this early morning. While storms may be on a diminishing trend
by mid morning, restricted cigs/vsbys are still possible with
any storms. After some midday wane, the atmosphere recharges for
the next and penultimate wave of storms to develop by this
evening, bringing heightening potential for restrictions to
cigs/vsbys and gusty winds with its passage tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$